Chirac: if held today, the referendum would be lost

A significant number of French voters will take their
stance after the Socialist Party decides whether it wants to
support the Constitution in an internal referendum on 1
December.

A French referendum on the proposed EU Constitution would
likely be lost if it was being held today, Jacques Chirac warned
Tony Blair during his visit to Britain last week. 

“If the vote was held today, we would lose it,” he reportedly
said. 

The outcome of an internal vote by the Socialist Party on 1
December about whether they want to support the Constitution will
go a long way to determining the result of the French referendum,
which could take place as early as May 2005 (see EURACTIV, 18 Oct. 2004).

According to Le Monde, Chirac believes the vote to
be “decisive” as he considers the Socialist Party to be
“potentially today the first party in France” after sweeping to
victory at the regional elections in spring.

The socialist “oui” camp is led by party leader François
Hollande whereas the “non” is led by the party’s number two and
former prime minister Laurent Fabius. The latter let his position
be known in September, lending his support to the text on the
condition that Jacques Chirac convinced his EU partners to put in
place a new employment policy that “guards against jobs from going
abroad” (see EURACTIV, 10 Sept. 2004).

The showdown between the two socialist leaders comes against the
backdrop of a larger internal confrontation about who will become
the socialist candidate at the 2007 French presidential
elections.

All 25 EU member states have to formally ratify the Constitution
– whether by parliamentary vote or referendum – before it can be
enacted. A rejection by one of the big countries such as France,
Germany or Britain would be considered as dealing it a potentially
fatal blow, EU officials have said.