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Turnout threat looms large over 2009 EU elections

Est. 5min

24-04-2008 (updated: 28-05-2012 )

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Political campaigners are stepping up their efforts ahead of the June 2009 elections to replace the European Parliament. But as parties try to attract citizens’ attention by contrasting their political programmes, one question looms large: will voters care to show up?

Debate over the next European elections is becoming increasingly heated in Brussels. The two largest political parties – the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the Party of European Socialists (PES) – have both outlined their programmes to the public, hoping to spark a debate and attract voter attention.

But beyond party politics – which is in any case weak in Brussels due to the consensus-based approach to the EU and the dominance of national politics – it is voter apathy which appears of greatest concern at the moment.

Since the first European elections were held in 1979, participation has consistently fallen, reaching a record low of 46% at the last poll in 2004.

“Clearly, we are worried about turnout,” says Julian Scola, a communications and campaign advisor at the PES. The issue, he adds, is “also worrying and even worse” in the countries from central and Eastern Europe that joined the EU in 2004. In the last election, participation stood at 47.1% in the EU-15 but fell to 26.4% on average among the ten newcomers.

And according to Scola, voters in his own socialist family have a fair degree of responsibility for this. “Traditionally, we feel it is our own voters who stay away,” he told EURACTIV, pointing out that socialist voters often consider the EU to be “too technocratic” and therefore not relevant enough as a political decision-making entity. “It is certainly a major problem.”

Socialists want a clear choice between left and right

The key, Scola says, is to increase the relevance of EU elections by presenting voters with a clear distinction between parties left and right of the political spectrum.

In an effort to cure voter apathy, socialist campaigners have rallied behind that view, seeking to mobilise voters within their ranks by launching attacks on the centre-right. In a recent statement, they accused EPP-ED leaders of drawing up their electoral programme behind closed doors.

“We in the PES do not want a manifesto that has been drawn up in a closed room by a handful of politicians,” said PES President Poul Nyrup Rasmussen. “That is yesterday’s politics. We want a manifesto that offers not only a clear choice between left and right, [but one] that has also been shaped through consultation and debate. We want to show that social democrats have different politics from the conservatives, and that we do politics in a different way too.”

The socialists may have a point there. Earlier in March, James Elles, a prominent conservative MEP from the UK, resigned from his position as chairman of the European Ideas Network (EIN), a think tank of the EPP-ED. Explaining his decision, he said the think tank’s work was being ignored by the group when it agreed its political strategy for the 2009 European elections.

“The lack of support from the EPP-ED group leadership has made my chairmanship unworkable,” Elles said in an e-mail accompanying his resignation letter. More seriously, he wrote, “the recent elaboration of a ‘decalogue’ of group priorities for the future took no account of EIN work in any way. It was as if the network did not exist”.

Making the EU more controversial?

But whether the socialists or other political parties will succeed in attracting voter attention by stirring controversy remains unclear.

According to Sebastian Kurpas of the Centre for European Policy Studies (CEPS) in Brussels, political parties at European level are too dependent on their national affiliates, resulting in election programmes which invariably end up suiting the lowest common denominator. “If you look at certain manifestos of the past, the real European party manifestos, they have usually been rather general and not very concrete,” Kurpas told EURACTIV.

And in turn, national political parties can never single-handedly win a sufficiently large number of seats in the European Parliament to indulge themselves in making big promises to the electorate.

“It has happened in the past that certain parties had a national programme which said: ‘If you vote for us, we will push for this or that political result at the European level’. The problem is that, often, one single national party is not strong enough to push for something in a given European party grouping and that makes it more difficult for national parties to deliver on their promises to voters.”

In the end, the old habit of consensus politics may end up prevailing again, Kurpas says. 

“The Parliament is still very consensus-driven as is the whole European integration process. So EU policymaking is always about finding a compromise and building a common solution, it is not about a majority having the power and imposing it on a minority – this is not how Europe can function. And that is not necessarily the mode which will strike public attention.”

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Positions

Most EU political parties have already outlined the main elements of their programmes for the 2009 election.

The centre-right EPP-ED group, currently the largest in the European Parliament, presented a ten-point political strategy on 4 March 2008. This 'Decalogue' as it was called is grouped under four headings: 1) Creating a Europe of values; 2) A Europe of growth and prosperity; 3) Making Europe a safer place, and; 4) Achieving greater solidarity in Europe.

"Our Group, more than any other, believes in a prosperous economy to benefit the greatest number of people," said EPP-ED Group Chairman Joseph Daul, presenting the Decalogue on 4 March. "A society which promotes the spirit of initiative and enterprise; a society which develops itself with future generations in mind; and a society which looks after its climate, guarantees sufficient resources and which adapts to demographic change."

Priorities range from promoting the transatlantic relationship to completing the EU's internal market for goods and services, as well as combating "jihadist terrorism," developing a joint immigration policy, fighting climate change and ensuring food safety.

In one of its most ambitious proposals, the Decalogue suggests reforming the EU budget, starting in 2014 with the introduction of "new own resources so as to gradually replace the national contributions." 

But the document does not go into more detail as such debates inevitably open the Pandora's box of the UK rebate on the EU budget and France's generous benefits from the common agricultural policy. And it also shies away from sensitive questions such as the EU's borders and the question of Turkey's future EU membership for instance, which - again - divides French and UK conservative parties. On this issue, the document says the EPP-ED will strive to reach an agreement within the group.

For the Party of European Socialists (PES), the second largest political force in the current Parliament, the method is just as important as the substance. The party has invested heavily in online tools and has been running a Europe-wide internet consultation on its manifesto for the 2009 European elections. It also launched a YouTube channel where grassroots party activists can send their videos and watch party leaders talk about the manifesto. It has also launched a Facebook group.

"Today's internet age is the era of interactivity," said PES President Poul Nyrup Rasmussen. "People want their say - and they expect to be heard. We want a manifesto that […] has been shaped through consultation and debate."

The PES has identified four main topics for the consultation website: 1) Save our planet; 2) New social Europe; 3) European democracy & diversity, and; 4) EU in the world.

But it remains to be seen whether the party will come up with a meaningful programme as, like other parties, it needs to accommodate the sometimes diverging views of its national members.

The European Liberals and Democrats (ELDR), the third largest political party in Parliament, have only recently started discussing its strategy. "We are trying to match the competition," admitted Chiara Puletti, a spokesperson for the ELDR.

At an April Council meeting in Tallin, Estonia, ELDR leaders debated foreign security and defence policy. In a statement, it said "this is one of four themes around which the ELDR manifesto will be based". Future discussions on drafting the ELDR 2009 electoral manifesto will take place on the themes of "Liberal Europe" (understood as civil liberties) and the EU single market. The final ELDR electoral programme will be adopted by its Congress on 30 and 31 October 2008 in Stockholm, Sweden.

On the EU budget issue, the ELDR argued in favour of "cutting the budget set aside for the agricultural sector" and re-focus spending on a clear set of priorities, such as investment in research, innovation, infrastructure, the fight against climate change and curbing cross-border crime. It also urged EU leaders to give the European Parliament a single seat "in order to stop the inefficient and expensive movement of Parliament between Brussels and Strasbourg".

Speaking to EURACTIV earlier this year in an interview, Philippe Lamberts, co-spokesperson for the European Green Party (EGP), said national affiliates will base their campaign on "a common political platform". 

"In 2004, for the previous elections, we were the first political family to do a common campaign based on written material," Lamberts said. "This time we are much more ambitious. It is likely going to be a campaign that will be driven by common events which we are going to do across Europe."

But the Greens too will need to manage potentially conflicting national views when agreeing on their electoral manifesto. "Where we have experienced differences in the past was when the Swedish party or the British one took – back in time – stronger anti-European stances," said Lamberts. "We have to recognise that, although they represent a minority within the Green Party."

Yet Lamberts says the common element will be an important part of each of the national campaigns. "In some countries, the common campaign will be 99% of the campaign because they do not want to add a national touch to it, whereas in other countries the common campaign might only make up 15%."

However, he is under no illusions as to the outcome: "We know that European elections are in fact a set of national elections and that in certain countries, the focus on Europe is not that big because there are other elections that are taking place at the same time."

The Greens will hold a congress in March 2009 to officially launch their campaign, Lamberts said.

Background

Since 1979, the European Parliament has been directly elected every five years. There are currently 785 Members of the European Parliament (MEPs).

The last election in 2004 was fought largely on national issues and resulted in the lowest turnout since 1979, suggesting an increasing distance between citizens and the EU institutions. In most countries, voters used the election to protest against national politicians, with ruling parties suffering substantial losses.

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