EU-10 not ready to adopt euro yet

euro.jpg

None of the EU’s ten new member states meet all the criteria needed
to join the eurozone. Lithuania comes closest while Hungary and
Poland remain furthest away.

The Commission-ECB report examines: 

  • the compatibility of the member states’ national legislations
    with the Treaty and the statute of the ECB 
  • the degree of sustainable convergence achieved by the “member
    states with derogation”

The report applies four key convergence criteria:

  • price stability (calculated on the basis of an average
    inflation rate over a period of one year)
  • the government’s budgetary position (linked to the decisions
    made in accordance with the ‘excessive deficit procedure’)
  • exchange rate stability (observance of the normal fluctuation
    margins of the Exchange Rate Mechanism – ERM II – for at least two
    years without severe tensions)
  • the long-term interest rate (observance over a period of one
    year of an average nominal interest rate – 6.4 per cent in August
    2004 – not exceeding by more than 2 per cent that of the three
    best-performing member states)

Read more with Euractiv

Subscribe now to our newsletter EU Elections Decoded

The report found that the criterion of: 

  • (1) price stability has been fulfilled
    by five member states (the Czech Republic,
    Cyprus, Estonia, Lithuania and Sweden)
  • (2) government budgetary position (ie no
    'excessive deficit') has been fulfilled
    by five member states (Estonia, Latvia,
    Lithuania, Slovenia and Sweden)
  • (3) exchange rate stability has not been
    fulfilled by any member state (only Estonia, Lithuania and Slovenia
    are members of ERM II, but only since 28 June 2004, ie for a period
    of less than the required minimum of two years)
  • (4) the long-term interest rate has been
    fulfilled by nine member states (the Czech
    Republic, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Malta, Slovenia, Slovakia and
    Sweden plus Estonia, where the fiscal context is different but the
    report found "no reason" to conclude that the country would not
    qualify)
Member state (1) (2) (3) (4)
Czech Republic



YES

NO NO



YES

Estonia



YES



YES

NO



YES

Cyprus



YES

NO NO



YES

Latvia NO



YES

NO



YES

Lithuania



YES



YES

NO



YES

Hungary NO NO NO NO
Malta NO NO NO YES
Poland NO NO NO NO
Slovenia NO



YES

NO



YES

Slovakia NO NO NO



YES

Sweden



YES



YES

NO



YES

Accordingly, none of the ten new member states yet fulfil the
criteria for joining the eurozone, and all eleven states have
retained the status of "member state with derogation". At the same
time, Monetary Affairs Commissioner Joaquín
Almunia
praised the member states' efforts, adding that
"the road to euro membership requires further efforts". 

ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet commented
that "all countries have challenges" but he refused to suggest a
timetable for the affected countries' accession to the euro.
"Progress with fiscal consolidation has generally been too slow and
a majority of countries have yet to achieve a situation which, in a
broader view, might be judged as sustainable in the medium term,"
he said.

At least once every two years, the Commission, in co-operation
with the European Central Bank (ECB), is obliged by the Treaty to
compile a report to the Council on the convergence records of the
"member states with derogation". The latter term identifies those
countries that have not yet adopted the EU's common
currency. 

Accordingly, the new report covers eleven member states: the
Czech Republic, Estonia, Cyprus, Latvia, Lithuania, Hungary, Malta,
Poland, Slovenia, Slovakia (all obliged to adopt the euro) and
Sweden. Sweden has not qualified for membership of the eurozone and
thus belongs to the "member states with derogation" category.
Denmark and the UK have chosen to be outside the eurozone for now.
Given their special opt-out arrangements, they are not
examined in the report. 

Subscribe to our newsletters

Subscribe