EU warns Greece rejecting austerity may lead to default

Greece .jpg

The European Union warned Greek lawmakers yesterday (28 June) that their country faced immediate default unless they approve a hated austerity plan, as strikers began new mass protests against the EU/IMF-imposed measures.

With the Greek parliament debating a raft of spending cuts, tax rises and privatisations, the EU's top economic official, Olli Rehn, dismissed reports that Brussels was working on fallback options to keep Greece afloat if the plan was rejected.

"The only way to avoid immediate default is for parliament to endorse the revised economic programme […] [It] must be approved if the next tranche of financial assistance is to be released," he said in a statement.

"To those who speculate about other options, let me say this clearly: there is no Plan B to avoid default," Rehn said.

Preparing for Plan B

The blunt alternative was underscored by Bank of England Governor Mervyn King, who told British parliamentarians that policymakers were working on ways to limit the damage from a potential default on Greece's 340-billion-euro debt pile.

"What we're doing is to say there is sufficient concern in the market about the possibility of default for us to think about contingency plans and the consequences of this event," he said.

He urged greater transparency about sovereign exposures to prevent a sudden, broad-based loss of confidence in European banks in the event of a Greek default, which could trigger a new credit crunch.

With Greece close to bankruptcy, trade unions filled the streets surrounding the Parliament to try to prevent lawmakers approving the painful measures in votes today (29 June) and tomorrow (30 June).

"We expect a dynamic and massive participation in the strike and the march to the centre of Athens. We will have 48 hours of working people, unemployed, young people in the streets," ADEDY public sector union leader Spyros Papaspyros told Reuters.

Some 5,000 police have been drafted into central Athens, mostly to protect parliament. Police fired tear gas to disperse a small group of youths throwing sticks and bottles on Tuesday during an otherwise peaceful protest by thousands in Syntagma Square outside the neoclassical legislature building.

Eyes on the markets

The EU and IMF have said Greece must enact both the five-year austerity plan, with 28.6 billion euros in savings, and key implementing laws for structural reforms and state asset sales to secure the next 12-billion-euro slice of aid in July.

Without that, Athens would run out of money within weeks.

The cost of insuring Greek debt against default and short-dated government bond yields rose yesterday as investors remained nervous before the parliamentary votes.

However the euro was broadly steady, with fears of a default offset by signs that eurozone authorities are making progress with banks on a voluntary rollover of Greek debt.

Prime Minister George Papandreou's Socialists hold a narrow majority with 155 seats in the 300-member legislature, but a handful of lawmakers have defected and others have threatened to vote against some or all of the measures, putting the outcome in doubt.

New Finance Minister Evangelos Venizelos, a PASOK party heavyweight, has tried to woo wavering backbenchers by promising a renegotiation of the balance of the programme towards promoting economic growth in September.

Rehn offered some encouragement to Greece on that front, saying he would support the government's plan to reform the tax system later this year to broaden the tax base, simplify the tax code and reduce tax rates in a fiscally neutral way.

If Greece approves the legislation, eurozone finance ministers meeting in Brussels on Sunday are likely to agree to release the next aid tranche, with the IMF following on 5 July.

Attention will then switch to putting together a second rescue package for Greece of about the same magnitude as the initial 110-billion-euro bailout agreed last year.

The new programme would involve some 30 billion euros in private sector participation via a "voluntary" rollover of maturing debt, a similar sum from privatisation revenues and an expected 55 billion euros in new official funding.

Eurozone banks and insurers are considering a French plan outlined by President Nicolas Sarkozy earlier this week under which private bondholders would reinvest half of the proceeds of maturing Greek debt in new 30-year bonds paying 5.5% interest plus a bonus linked to Greece's GDP growth rate.

Of the other half, 30% would be cashed out and 20% would be invested in zero-coupon AAA securities with deferred interest that might be issued or guaranteed by the eurozone rescue fund, officials and banking sources said.

French banks have the largest foreign private sector exposure to Greece, followed by Germany. German bankers voiced interest in the "French model", while credit ratings agencies withheld comment pending details of the scheme.

Standard & Poor's said on Monday it was too soon to judge the ratings impact of the private debt rollover being put together for Greece, which it had not yet seen, but did not rule out avoiding a downgrade to default.

Asked if he could imagine a solution in which private creditors voluntarily contributed to a Greek rescue package without triggering an S&P downgrade, Moritz Kraemer, head of European sovereign ratings, told Austrian television:

"It is conceivable depending on the situation. That is why I say it is not possible at all to draw a final conclusion on this in the current situation."

In Berlin, visiting Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao said Beijing had faith in the European economy and the euro and was optimistic that Europe could overcome its temporary challenge.

As in the past, he gave a vague commitment to buying eurozone debt without specifying countries or amounts.

 

The Greek parliament will hold votes on 29-30 June on the austerity programme it has agreed with the EU, IMF and European Central Bank, which includes €6 billion of spending cuts and revenue increases this year alone.

The votes are expected to be extremely close, with opposition parties rigidly opposed. While the government has a majority of about five seats in parliament, EU officials are privately concerned that the vote could conceivably be lost.

If the programme is rejected, the EU will have no choice but to join the IMF in refusing to disburse the €12 billion payment – the fifth tranche of the €110 billion package of bilateral loans Greece agreed in May 2010.

While Greece may be able to roll over its treasury bills in July, it would not have enough money to redeem the €5.9 billion of five-year bonds it has falling, due on 20 August.

  • 29-30 June: Greek parliament votes on austerity package.
  • 3 July: Extraordinary Eurogroup meeting to decide on Greek aid.

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