As Ukraine signs French security deal, Macron warns Russia risk reached ‘new phase’

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy signed a security pact with France on Friday (16 February), hours after securing a similar deal with Germany, as Paris hardened its tone on Russia’s threat to the West.

Before landing in Paris, Zelenskyy signed a similar bilateral deal with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, looking to ensure long-lasting military and economic support to the war-torn nation.

These country-by-country deals follow on from G7 leaders’ commitment last July to commit to long-term help while Ukraine is not yet a full-fledged NATO member.

Both agreements are part of Zelensky’s drive to shore up support for his forces, who are struggling to hold off Russian attacks on the frontline city of Avdiivka.

“France confirms that Ukraine’s future membership of NATO would make an effective contribution to peace and stability in Europe,” the French deal reads.

‘New phase’

The security agreements also come as EU’s top military brass has warned that Russia could pose a serious risk to NATO members and the EU in the near future.

“Over the last few months, [Russia] accumulated and hardened its aggressiveness – not just against Ukraine, but against all of us,” Macron said on Friday.

He warned of a “new phase” in Russia’s threat to “the destabilisation of the world, not hesitating to threaten […] our interests”.

There is “an aggressive phase towards EU countries with disinformation actions, but also cyber-attacks, the nature of which has gone beyond certain thresholds,” the French president added, calling EU and international actors for a “collective response”.

The Kremlin’s grip on opposition is also tighter than ever – Macron and Zelenskyy met just hours after Russian media confirmed that Putin’s fiercest critic Alexei Navalny had died after collapsing during a walk in a penal colony.

“It’s clear Putin is a murderer, that’s just a fact, there’s no secret there,” Zelenskyy said.

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Nudge to Washington

Ukraine’s security agreement with France, due to last a minimum of 10 years, includes a commitment to increasing military financial help by an extra €3 billion in 2024 alone.

Paris dedicated €1.7 billion in 2022 and €2.1 billion in 2023 to Ukraine for its war efforts – quite a long way away from Germany’s €7.1 billion commitment for 2024 and €5 billion 2023 spending.

In wording very similar to Germany’s deal and that of the UK, the first country to sign an agreement with Zelenskyy in mid-January, the agreement with Paris enshrines a ’24-hour clause’, where both countries would “consult within 24 hours to determine measures needed to counter or deter [future] aggression”.

The deal includes provisions on a wide number of issues, including defence cooperation, cyber, protection of critical infrastructure and counterintelligence.

It also seeks to reinforce ties between the two countries’ defence industries “through French investments, the localisation of production in Ukraine as well as joint production for manufacturing of priority weapons and ammunition”.

Negotiations are ongoing between Kyiv and other EU capitals to agree new military support – and talks are also on with Washington.

“These deals [with Germany and France] will give the US a boost” to follow suit, Zelenskyy claimed – as Joe Biden struggles to get an aid package worth $95 billion (€88 billion) to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan through Congress.

“It’s important Russia sees these deals,” the Ukrainian president explained, “so it knows we’re not alone”.

Macron also confirmed he would travel to Ukraine no later than mid-March.

[Edited by Alexandra Brzozowski/Zoran Radosavljevic]

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