EU’s Michel lands in Kyiv as bloc looks at tough battle on Ukraine aid, accession talks

KYIV, UKRAINE – European Council President Charles Michel arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday (21 November) on yet another reassurance mission by a high-ranking EU official, just three weeks before a decisive end-of-year EU summit over support to Ukraine.

Michel’s visit, his fifth since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, coincides with the 10th anniversary of the Euromaidan protests, which started on 21 November 2013 and were sparked by then-President Viktor Yanukovych’s sudden decision not to sign the EU–Ukraine Association Agreement, and instead choosing closer ties to Russia.

“It’s a fundamental day,” Michel told a group of reporters, including Euractiv, on the train heading to Kyiv. “Ten years ago, Ukrainian citizens died demanding association with the European Union, for their values, their future, their freedom.”

635 days after Russia invaded Ukraine, Kyiv hopes to come a step closer to the desire to start EU accession talks in mid-December, a core topic when Michel meets with Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and other high-ranking Ukrainian officials.

In his meetings, Michel is expected to reassure Kyiv of the EU’s determination to continue long-term support, but also to manage expectations ahead of the decisive December summit.

“Meeting in person is very important to understand what is realistic, and for Ukrainians to understand what the state of play is on the EU side,” Michel told reporters.

In recent weeks, Ukraine and some of its staunchest supporters have voiced concerns that the attention from the US and its Western allies will shift towards the Middle East as worries grew about the Israel-Hamas war potentially destabilising the region.

Following Ukraine’s half-successful counteroffensive earlier this year, the war has largely reached a stalemate.

Europe and the US are increasingly worried that Ukraine might struggle to regain meaningful chunks of territory in the short term – especially over the winter – and are instead focusing their efforts on enabling Kyiv’s forces to hold the line against Russia.

European governments have started boosting their assistance to Ukraine amid growing concerns that Washington’s failure to approve new aid could cause Kyiv to lose ground.

Earlier this month, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen came to Kyiv on a reassurance mission just ahead of her executive’s recommendation to start accession talks with Ukraine, promising Zelenskyy continued EU support.

Uncertainty over EU aid

Three weeks later, Michel’s visit comes as the EU is bogged down in difficulties in its efforts to provide more financial and military aid to Ukraine.

On 14-15 December, EU leaders will hold a decisive summit in Brussels, where they will decide whether to greenlight the opening of accession talks with the country and decide on an EU budget top-up that has delayed approval of the bloc’s €50 billion support package for Ukraine.

A new Ukraine war fund worth €20 billion in military aid for Kyiv is running into resistance from member states and may not survive in its current form.

Separately, an eighth €500 million tranche under the European Peace Facility (EPF) of reimbursement to member states is currently held up by Hungary over bilateral demands towards Kyiv.

At the same time, the debate over EU military aid comes as the bloc is unlikely to reach the pledged target of providing Ukraine with one million ammunition rounds by March 2024.

‘Difficult summit’ ahead

The hiccups with the EU’s military aid for Ukraine come as seasoned diplomats expect a tough EU December summit battle over the proposed EU budget revision, which is expected to be intertwined with Ukraine’s accession talks and domestic demands by some members of the bloc.

“When I say this will be a difficult European summit, this is a fact”, Michel told reporters.

“I will spare no effort to have a positive decision in December, but can’t predict what happens – not everything is black and white,” he added.

Especially since the European Commission gave Ukraine until March of next year to finalise the key outstanding of the seven recommendations on the reforms required to concretely begin talks.

“This deadline was a surprise for me. It will be taken into account by Member States in their reflections”, Michel told reporters, in a barely veiled criticism of the EU executive’s proposal.

[Edited by Zoran Radosavljevic]

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