EURACTIV logo

Pundits: Yanukovich holds the key of Ukraine’s geopolitical choice

Est. 5min

18-11-2013 (updated: 25-11-2013 )

Viktor_Yanukovich.jpg

Languages: Français

This article is part of our special report Ukraine on the way to reform.

SPECIAL REPORT / Ten days ahead of the Vilnius summit of the Eastern partnership, analysts diverge on the chances that a landmark EU-Ukraine Association Agreement would be signed on this occasion, but agree that one person holds the key to the country’s geopolitical choice: its President Viktor Yanukovich. 

In recent days, the assumption that Ukraine was on the right track to sign its Association Agreement (AA) with the EU was replaced by uncertainty.

In particular, the failure of the Ukrainian Parliament to pass a bill allowing for former Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko’s release from prison for treatment abroad confirmed the impression that the Ukrainian leadership may have made a U-turn with respect to its geopolitical choice.

>> Read: Ukrainian parliament pours cold water over the country’s EU prospects

Vadim Omelchenko, President of the Gorshenin Institute, told EURACTIV that the Parliament’s decisions reflected Yanukovich’s will. Last September, the same Parliament dismayed the EU by swiftly passing laws required by Brussels as a pre-condition for concluding an EU pact in time for November's Vilnius Summit.

“It is not a secret that the Ukrainian Parliament is controlled by President Yanukovych today, and by acting in a certain way, it reflects his will. It is not a secret either that Yanukovych has met Vladimir Putin three times over the past month and had confidential talks with him about the content of which nobody neither in Ukraine nor in Russia knows for sure,” Omelchenko said.

Playing for extra time?

 

http://www.euractiv.com/video/eu-urges-ukraine-act-tymoshenko-secure-deal-307320

 

According to Omelchenko, Yanukovich plays for extra time, meaning that the chances that AA would be signed in Vilnius are extremely low.  Consequently, Yanukovich puts a brake on adopting a number of the decisions needed to sign the AA in Vilnius (see background).

“Judging from the messages heard from the Presidential Administration, the option of postponing the signature of the Agreement for one year is the best for  Yanukovych,” says Omelchenko.

Asked to explain, he said that the current economic situation in Ukraine made its leadership seek “fast funding”, and that he might have reached agreement with Russian President Vladimir Putin for such fast loans over his last meeting on 10 November.

However, this doesn’t mean that Yanukovych has turned its back on Brussels, Omelchnko argues. According to him, Yanukovich fears the “Belarusian scenario” where part of the economic sovereignty had to be conceded in exchange of financial support. Therefore, it is “beneficial” for Yanukovych to maintain the EU agenda “to keep the Russian leadership on the alert”.

Masterful geopolitics or blind stupidity?

Martin Nunn, Communications Director of People First Foundation, told EURACTIV from Kyiv that the Ukrainian gambling could be interpreted either as a “masterful understanding of geopolitics” or “blind stupidity”, adding that at present it was very difficult to tell which. 

Nunn expressed doubts if the Ukrainian leadership understood that the European Union was based on principles that are not negotiable.

“The Tymoshenko debacle is not about the lady, it’s about the rule of law and that is anathema in the current ‘Robber baron’ environment,” Nunn said. ‘Robber baron’ is a term from the late 1880s in the USA, typically applied to businessmen who used what were considered to be exploitative practices to amass their wealth.

According to Nunn, Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykolay Azarov in his recent statements had clearly demonstrated his “lack of understanding of the whole European ideal”, as he apparently suggested that Ukraine can secure the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), which is internal part of the AA, without the significant reforms demanded by the Association Agreement itself. 

“What he and the rest of his party want is all the benefits without the reforms so that they can continue business as usual but this is not and never has been on the table,” Nunn said.

Media preparing public for ‘No’ in Vilnius?

Nunn said that establishment in Ukraine was preparing the public opinion for a ‘No’ in Vilnius, as the TV channels had started to show favourite Russian films again, the news broadcasts were full of positive stories on how wonderful Russia is today and leading journalists were now resigning en-masse “for being told what to write in top publications”. 

The developments described regarding the media crackdown entirely match elements of what appears to be a leaked Kremlin strategy to bring Ukraine back into Russia’s orbit, published last August by the website Zerkalo Nedeli.

A prominent Ukrainian journalist who asked not to be named told EURACTIV that if Yanukovich wanted a positive outcome in Vilnius, he would had secured it with “just a phone call to the Verhovna Rada”, the Ukrainian parliament.

The journalist was also highly critical to the mission of the European Parliament, consisting of the former President of the EP Pat Cox and the former President of Poland Aleksander Kwa?niewski.

In his words, the two envoys had acted as if they were only sent to release Tymoshenko, keeping their eyes shut as to the fact that ‘a big geopolitical war” was raging between the EU and Russia.

Positions

The two EU envoys, former Polish President Aleksander Kwa?niewski  and former European Parliament President Pat Cox, said that the 19 November session is the last chance for Ukraine’s parliament to pass the law allowing Tymoshenko to be allowed to leave prison for treatment abroad.

Cox said the EU envoys were ready to spend "as long as is necessary, with as many people as is necessary, to do whatever is necessary to secure success". He said they were ready to help and advise Ukrainian politicians on finding a solution.

Olena Pavlenko, President of the Dixi Group, a Ukrainian consultancy specialised in the energy business, said that Ukraine had done “a lot” during last months, but there were still three main obstacles on the road to the EU. She singled out the draft law on the Prosecutor’s office, the draft law on elections and the decision about the possibility for Yulia Tymoshenko to go abroad for treatment.

“During last six months Ukrainian Parliament adopted a number of laws needed for getting Ukraine closer to the EU. In May, 2013 constitutional majority of MPs voted for so-called “anticorruption package” of legislation. In September the Parliament adopted the Law about enforcement of judgments, which will improve the independence of courts in Ukraine,” Pavlenko said.

She added that this process was followed by attempts from interested parties to preserve some “holes” allowing corruption in the legislation, and also said that there was a also a problem with the implementation of the already adopted legislation.

“For example, a Law on gas market, which was adopted back in 2010, still is not fully implemented: for example, “Naftogas” still has some functions as Gas Pipeline System Operator,” Pavlenko said.

Anton Podlutskyi, political expert and BlogActiv contributor, wrote that the despite critical moments, the EU-Ukraine relation still remains “not that much dramatic as some try to show”.

“Our parliament has once again proved it is an extremely powerless body where MPs can never come to the mutual opinion even if the destiny of the whole country depends on this opinion. But, considering that Cox-Kwa?niewski  mission has been prolonged until 28 November, it is quite probable, and the Ukrainian history knows a lot of such examples, when all necessary decisions will be made literally on the eve of the summit.

The "Tymoshenko's question", which is s stumbling block for signing the Agreement, can for example be solved by the direct intervention of president Viktor Yanukovych. After all, the president is the supreme guarantor of rights and freedoms. And nobody prevents the ombudsman from introducing the petition for pardon, the same way as it was in case with the ex-head of the Ministry of Internal Affairs Yuriy Lutsenko, and Yanukovych - from satisfying this petition by signing the pardon decree. Certainly, it is not a cancellation of the criminal record, but it is about the release of the former prime minister for treatment in Europe.”

Background

With the approach of the Vilnius summit, the European Commission has taken stock of the progress made by Ukraine on its way to reform, but also singled out the need to move forward on the outstanding issues, as follows:

  • First, a definitive move with respect to the case of Yulia Tymoshenko. In this respect, the Commission continues to fully support the efforts of Presidents Cox and Kwasniewski, whose mission has now been prolonged until mid-November. These efforts are directed to obtain a partial pardon decision of the President, which would allow medical treatment in Germany.
  • Second, Ukraine now needs to proceed to the adoption of improved legislation on parliamentary elections. While it is not realistic to demand the adoption of an election code at this stage, the objective must remain that Ukraine codifies and harmonises all electoral legislation. This process will clearly run beyond Vilnius, but the Commission needs to be reassured that similar reforms will be introduced also to the legislation on local and presidential elections.
  • Third, the ambitious draft legislation on the reform of the General Prosecutor's Office – a long-standing key issue with respect to reforming the judicial system – will still need to be finally adopted (the first reading took place on 8 November).

In a post-Vilnius setting, the Commission will continue to follow closely a number of elements, such as the constitutional reform (including the law on referenda), the reform of the criminal code, and the reform of the legislation for presidential and local elections. 

Timeline

  • 18 Nov.: EU foreign ministers to take decisions regarding the Vilnius summit;
  • 19 Nov.: Ukrainian parliament to reconvene;
  • 28-29 Nov.: Eastern Partnership Summit, to be held in Vilnius under the Lithuanian EU presidency. Ukraine hopes to sign the Association Agreement and DCFTA there, and Moldova and Georgia expect to initial similar agreements.

Further Reading

Languages: Français

Topics  

Subscribe to our newsletters

Subscribe