New Rome Treaty is born

The ‘Commission crisis’ still
unresolved, EU heads of state and government will
soon face the next challenge of ratifying the
Constitutional Treaty.

The EU’s heads of state and government
gathered in Rome on 29 October to sign a new Treaty
establishing a Constitution for Europe. The new treaty,
which incorporates existing treaties, will be
signed in the same room in which the founding members
signed the treaty establishing the European Community in
1957. The number of signatories has increased
in the meantime from six to 28 – with 25 member
states plus Romania, Bulgaria and Turkey. 

The political vacuum caused by a delay in
the investiture vote on the Barroso Commission is likely
to take centre stage at a gathering that may
have otherwise focused on the ratification of
the new treaty. With a growing number of countries
intending to hold a popular vote, the outcome of the
process appears less and less predictable.

Nine countries have said so far that they would hold
referenda and six governments have opted for
parliamentary ratification. Ten countries are as yet
undecided. 

There is no readily available solution for a
scenario in which one (or more)
country rejects the treaty. It is a widely held
view that a decision would be taken base on the
country in question and the margin of
the ‘no’ vote. A recent briefing note
published by the Centre for European Reform (CER)
estimates that a ‘no’ vote is likely in Denmark
and the UK, as well as in the Czech Republic and Poland,
if the latter two decide to go forward with a
plebiscite. It predicts a narrow margin result, which may
go either way, in France and Ireland. CER’s
Daniel Keohane cites three possibilities in case of
a ‘no’ vote: to hold a second referendum in the
member state(s) in question, to keep the treaty and go
forward with a smaller group, or to re-draft the
Constitution. 

Pending the outcome of the current crisis surrounding
the Barroso Commission, a new commissioner is likely to
be nominated to support the institution’s efforts in
support of the timely ratification of the Constitutional
Treaty. The European Parliament will be the
first to ratify the treaty on 15 December.

Read more with Euractiv

Barroso plays for time to reshuffle his team

The vote of confidence on the Barroso Commission has been postponed due to a lack of political support for the new college from MEPs.