Praised over Brexit, Barnier in orbit of EU’s top job

Barnier, Juncker and Tusk ahead of the summit presser on 25 November 2018. [Council]

European Union leaders lavished their Brexit negotiator Michel Barnier with praise on Sunday (25 November) for securing a divorce agreement with the United Kingdom, strengthening the Frenchman’s hand should the stars align for him to run for Commission president.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez and Lithuanian President Dalia Grybauskaitė were among EU leaders meeting in Brussels to thank the 67-year-old.

In September, Barnier said he would not seek the nomination of the European Parliament’s biggest party, the centre-right EPP, to become the new head of the European Commission after Jean-Claude Juncker leaves next year.

The EPP has since picked Manfred Weber, a German ally of Merkel, but many EU diplomats and officials believe Barnier is not out of the race.

Brexit draft deal brightens Barnier’s political prospects

The tentative Brexit deal grudgingly approved by the British cabinet on Wednesday (14 November) could yet fall apart, but for one man it is already a personal victory.

“His Brexit job has allowed him to build his profile and credentials. Back then, the negotiations were still running and it was no time to jump ship. But we all know he is thinking about it and in the running,” one EU diplomat said on Sunday.

Juncker, who also commended Barnier for upholding the unity of the 27 states remaining in the EU by not letting Britain divide them, will be replaced next November.

His successor will be picked by the EU’s 27 national leaders who may, but do not have to, follow the European Parliament’s recommendation that will be made following the bloc-wide elections to the joint legislature next May.

Weber’s socialist rival now is Dutchman Frans Timmermans, currently a deputy to Juncker.

Pundits say Weber could take the job of Joseph Daul, the powerful president of the EPP party, who is 71 and is expected to retire. Daul, a farmer by background in his native Alsace, who got international prominence as chairman of the European Parliament agriculture committee, serves as EPP president since 2013.

Barnier for President, says Brussels-bubble

Michel Barnier is the top candidate to win the European Commission presidency after next May’s European elections, as a reward for delivering Brexit. At least, that is what the Brussels-bubble thinks, according to a survey published on Thursday (12 April).

Barnier, a pro-EU conservative, has travelled extensively across the bloc since the 2016 Brexit referendum, finding time to meet even the smaller political players, labour unions and industry lobbies.

Both Juncker and Barnier on Sunday also highlighted the role played by the Brexit negotiator’s two top aides – his deputy and veteran trade negotiator, German Sabine Weyand, and France’s Stephanie Riso, an economist with years of service at the European Commission. The Commission Secretary General Martin Selmayr also got praise.

‘A European choice’

Throughout the process, Barnier has made a point of showing particular respect for the European Parliament, which must also approve his Brexit deal for it to take effect before Britain leaves the bloc on March 29, 2019.

While parliament would be upset about the top Commission job going to someone it had not recommended, it would likely oppose Barnier’s candidacy less vehemently than anyone else’s.

A bigger headache for Barnier could be getting the backing of his native France, where he would not be President Emmanuel Macron’s first choice.

Small signs suggest Barnier might be keeping an eye on the job. Earlier in November, he travelled to Helsinki for the EPP congress despite not seeking the party’s recommendation.

In what looked like a campaign stunt in Brussels earlier this month, Barnier gave a broad two-hour speech on issues from climate change and electric cars to combating populism and the challenge posed for Europe by China and the United States under President Donald Trump.

As keynote speaker of a conservative, Catholic Belgian association, he filled the main concert hall of Brussels’ fine arts centre. Outside of the room, his book titled “A European Choice”, was on sale.

“Barnier has definitely not ruled himself out. He’s been very good shaking hands all around the EU. We’ll see what happens next,” another EU diplomat said on Sunday.

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