Make or break – The EU in 2007

The fourth issue of EU-25/27 Watch, published by the Berlin-based Institut für Europäische Politik (IEP), identifies the current key issues and challenges of European integration – with the fate of the Constitutional Treaty paramount – and outlines a comparative picture of debates and developments related to EU affairs in the member states as well as Croatia and Turkey.

The survey provides evidence on the expectations for the German EU-presidency, in particularly as regards the elements of the Rome Declaration 2007, the future of the Constitutional Treaty, the debate on absorption capacity, European energy policy (energy security and climate change), the future of the Western Balkans (Kosovo) and relations with Russia, as well as economic reforms under the Lisbon Agenda.

Concerning the fate of the Constitutional Treaty, member states acknowledge the narrow margin in which the German government has to operate. Apart from the presidential and parliamentary elections in France, there are several key changes taking place within governments all over Europe, making it difficult for Germany to communicate solutions, the authors say. 

However, overcoming the Constitutional impasse would be the acid test for the success or failure of the German Presidency. The bottom line seems to be that the treaty is not scrapped, but accepted as the basis for further negotiations. 

It is suggested that there is a window of opportunity between the German and French Presidencies. As the survey points out, the German government made it clear that it expects some countries (the ‘No’ countries) to show particular flexibility and will use the preparation of the so-called Berlin Declaration, to mark the 50th anniversary of the Treaty of Rome, as a test. As several reports underline, the target for the Berlin Declaration is the citizens.

As far as implications for further enlargement is concerned, the authors confirmed the solid support for the Western Balkans’ membership perspective, although no timetable or target dates were identified. 

Another important issue concerns energy security. The survey finds that many member states stress that they don’t want the EU to interfere in their energy choices.

Compared with older member states, one finding of the EU-25/27 Watch is that new members are placing a strong emphasis on basing the relationship with Russia on values common to EU members. 

Click here to read the complete EU-25/27 Watch.