Scenarios Europe 2010

Scenarios Europe 2010

In its report “Scenarios Europe 2010 – Five Possible Futures For Europe” the Forward Studies Unit of the European Commission has, with the help of the scenario technique, developed a set of future images of Europe such as “Triumphant Markets”, “The Hundred Flowers” or “Turbulent Neighbourhoods” and described them on the basis of factors such as political system, technology or culture/values. However, not only political institutions, but also international companies need to think and plan for the longer term. Above all they must be prepared for developments which deviate from the best guess – whether in a positive or negative way. The scenario technique, which Deutsche Bank Research uses for tackling various questions, has proved to be very effective.

The world in which political institutions and companies act today is becoming increasingly complex. The economy, politics, society and technology are changing more and more rapidly and are influencing each other mutually. The scenario technique is a very suitable tool for sketching an image of possible futures in a structured way. The European Commission wants to achieve two aims with this report. Its first aim is to develop an instrument which facilitates the analysis of the Union’s policies under the given framework conditions and thus contributes to the improvement of the policies. Secondly the report should stimulate debate among politicians, officials, and above all citizens of the European Union on the desired direction of European integration.

Of special importance for the completeness and the consistency of the scenarios as well as their later acceptance by the target groups is the inclusion of all stakeholders in the process. That is why the international and multidisciplinary Forward Studies Unit co-ordinated working groups consisting of 60 officials from 15 different EU Directorate-Generals. To make it easier for the participants of this project to imagine the different future worlds, the scenarios were described vividly. This was especially important for political topics. The Forward Studies Unit intends to continue using the scenario technique in order to establish a “future culture” inside the Commission.

The approach used in the preparation of the EU report is typical of the scenario technique. First, all the variables that can have an impact on the theme under consideration, for example economic adaptability, were put together in a brainstorming exercise. The method developed by the Commission is called “Shaping Actors-Shaping Factors”. It classifies all variables either as factors (i.e. structural trends, of diffuse character, e.g. the meaning of individualism) or actors (i.e. creative forces, recognisable and purpose-oriented, e.g. international companies or NGOs). While in the first phase emphasis was placed on creativity and the free exchange of thoughts, the next step was to reduce the initial list of variables to a more manageable set (10-15 per theme). In a third step so-called “mini-scenarios” were constructed. This means that for every factor and actor alternative parts of evolution were sketched (e.g. increase in individualism with social segregation, or greater social awareness). Subsequently the number of variables was reduced again (to approximately 5 per theme). Decisive for this reduction were the two dimensions uncertainty and impact. After this step comprehensible and coherent combinations out of the possible evolutions were developed. A suitable and significant name was chosen for every partial scenario (e.g. “Laissez faire”) and it was described vividly. Finally, all the partial scenarios for every theme were integrated into global scenarios. In this process consistency was very important.

So what might Europe look like in 2010? The following is an overview of three of the five scenarios sketched by the Unit. In the “Triumphant Markets ” scenario the neo-liberal model prevails worldwide and government has disengaged from economic life. Due to technological progress productivity rises even in sectors where traditionally it tended to stagnate and full employment is achieved. Fierce competition and the reduction of social benefits increase social inequality and exclusion. The European Union focuses on economic policy and institutional reforms make hardly any progress. The majority of the Central and Eastern European countries has joined the EU. Ukraine, the Balkan states, Israel, the Lebanon and Morocco have applied for EU membership.

“The Hundred Flowers” scenario looks completely different. Administrations and political systems lose grip on reality, as a result of which everywhere in Europe the state’s importance declines drastically. People increasingly withdraw into their families, the underground economy and their local communities. Grassroots initiatives mushroom, neighbourhood networks and municipalities gain importance. Economic performance is disappointing; social inequalities lead to the uneven distribution of wealth which causes tensions. Geographically, the development of the European countries is uneven: while some regions sink into a lethargy from which they will never rouse again or descend into medieval anarchy, others forge ahead with remarkable vitality. The EU loses importance; only four Central and Eastern European countries have joined the EU and no progress has been made in the Common Foreign & Security Policy (CFSP). The same applies to co-operation in the fields of justice and home affairs.

The scenario described in “Turbulent Neighbourhoods” is not very rosy. However, in view of the threat that global terrorism currently poses, this scenario is highly relevant. In this scenario a preoccupation with security has become part of everyday life. People’s lives are dominated by the anxiety about what the future holds for them. A siege mentality prevails. There is political instability everywhere. Regional conflicts, which could turn into civil wars, multiply. Governments try to fight their way through the unmanageable tangle of networks consisting of inextricably interlinked ethnically motivated guerilla wars, terrorism, organised crime and arms-dealing. Economic growth slows down, currency instability increases and social inequality widens. Nothing happens on the domestic level, and economic and social reforms are not carried through. The Union concentrates on foreign and security policy. In this process the large member states assume control and the Union’s institutions lose importance.

For more analysis see the

Deutsche Bank Research website.