Should ratification proceed? An assessment of different options after the failed referenda

This Policy Brief by Sebastian Kurpas for the Centre for European Policy Studies considers the possible measures taken by the European Union following ‘no’ votes in the French and Dutch Constitution referenda and examines the advantages and disadvantages of every available option.

After the resounding Dutch no-vote of 62%, ratification of the Constitutional Treaty has become even less likely than it already was after the political earthquake caused by the French referendum three days before. While the German Chancellor and the French President encourage other countries to continue with the ratification process, the British message is clear: Any attempt to proceed at this point would be pointless. British Foreign Minister Jack Straw found rather subtle words in the House of Commons to describe the situation, but other sources suggest that instead of wasting their time on a lengthy and useless exercise that would cost the EU even more support, European leaders should bury the Constitution at the upcoming European Summit on 16-17 June (or soon afterwards) and then settle for something ‘more modest’.

The British view has largely met a positive reception in the media and among other opinion-makers. Before such a consequential decision is taken, however, those who are responsible must have a clear idea of the alternative scenarios and the probability of finding a common agreement on them. This Policy Brief looks a little closer at the different options available and assesses their respective advantages and disadvantages.

Please click here to read the CEPS policy brief in full.