The Future of Europe Convention Travelling Hopefully?

The Future of Europe Convention Travelling Hopefully?

The future of Europe Convention is now three months into its task of finding answers to the challenges and questions of the Laeken declaration. The central issue for the Convention is whether it can find a route through the multitude of questions and create a strong consensus on substantive answers to the three big challenges of democratising the EU, organizing the politics and policies of the enlarged EU, and developing the EU’s voice in the world.

The enlarged EU of 25 or more members has to be able to cope in both democratic and efficiency terms with the increased numbers of member states, and increased diversity in economic and political interests and circumstances. The status quo is not an option or the enlarged EU will rapidly find its decision-making and operational mechanisms seizing up – it will be a stalled and inefficient EU.

The politics of the Convention are unfolding slowly and a myriad of political alignments are emerging. But some key differences are showing already – particularly the traditional battle between intergovernmentalists and integrationists. The relative role and powers of the Council and Commission will be central in determining the nature of the future EU. Fundamental reform of both institutions is vital in both efficiency and democratic terms. One of the big risks is that energy is concentrated on the relative power of the two institutions and not on their effective reform. Proposals for a new, five-year, appointed President of the European Council go in this direction – they will not improve legitimacy and precisely duplicate the characteristics of the current Commission President.

The paper identifies five scenarios for the future EU to summarise the potential outcomes of different sets of decisions by the Convention and the IGC:

• Emergent global political power;
• Struggling global power;
• Efficient but weak EU;
• Efficient but unstable EU;
• Technocratic, stalled and inefficient EU.

Politics of the Convention

The political dynamics of the Convention are highly complex with a range of developing political alignments and groupings – governments’ representatives, national MPs, MEPs, political parties, national groups, candidate countries etc. The relative positions, power and roles of the chair (Giscard), secretariat, presidium, and Convention members will be an ongoing development, with the outcome of the internal politics impacting strongly on the nature of the final output. Key issues include:

• Nature of the final document – constitutional treaty or political text. Consensus or division – and extent of options presented (member states prefer options);
• Presidium not yet developing identity as a political team; top-down or bottom up approach – wider Convention has many suspicions of presidium and chair, some tensions evident;
• New political dynamics of the enlarged EU emerging – candidate countries push successfully for representative on presidium and for use of own languages;
• General support for strengthening common foreign and security policy and justice and home affairs, for enhancing economic policy coordination, and for strengthening democratic legitimacy – more differences on social Europe; little support for repatriation of competences or for lists of competences;
• Civil society relations – importance of wide-ranging debate around the Convention, with genuine access and input into the Convention – some criticisms and doubts from NGOs.

Policy and Politics in the Enlarged EU

The enlarged EU has to manage the fundamental problem of increased numbers and diversity – which pose both democratic and efficiency challenges. The political and economic geography of the enlarged EU will be substant ially different, with differing geopolitical views and strong pressures to be an effective regional power. Key issues include:

• Enlarged EU is a small country EU (19 smalls to six bigs at 25) but risks being run as a big country EU;
• Greater range and variety of potential alliances and coalitions will increase uncertainty – revisit Nice voting weights: double-majority voting as the solution; extend QMV and codecision;
• Clarify allocation of competences and application of subsidiarity – new processes not lists;
• Candidates have some common interests in the Convention – including support for a politically strong EU, EU as a regional power, opposition to a directoire approach and to a two-speed EU. New approach to solidarity and cohesion.

The Democratic Problem

There are democratic legitimacy problems of all three main EU institutions. The relative powers and reforms of the Council and the Commission will be fundamental to the nature of the new EU – radical reforms of both are needed; greater intergovernmentalism risks weakening the EU. Other key issues include:

• Proposals for new European Council President will lead to confusion – with EU having 2 Presidents (Council and Commission) appointed in the same manner, for same time period. Both Presidents will lack democratic legitimacy. Council-Commission coordination may also suffer with increased conflicts, resulting in weak European Council President and weak Commission;
• Reform of General Affairs Council – split into two formations, foreign affairs and general affairs;
• Commission reform – need for a small Commission, with structures significantly refocused on the pan-European policy dimension, for effective strategic policy leadership, and to avoid national influences; greater accountability of Commission and bureaucracy to EP – election of President by EP, and of Commissioners, or at least individual right of veto;
• Step change in communication and participative democracy; new genuine communication strategies; innovations such as weekly on-line question time, involvement of national MPs in EP questioning of Commission president and EU presidency; more coherent and reliable civil dialogue.

Can the EU Have a Strong Voice in the World?

Enlargement underlines the EU’s position in the world as an economic giant and political dwarf. Global instability and uncertainty, and deteriorating EU-US relationship, add to pressure for urgent step change in EU’s international role – but the political will of member states is still the key hurdle. Other key issues include:

• Diverse legal bases of different international policies problematic: need for a common framework for trade, aid and development, environment, justice and security, human rights and foreign policy; merge 3 pillars;
• Major increase in coordination of member states’ foreign policies within common framework needed;
• Institutional changes include establishment of a separate Foreign Affairs Council; move towards greater QMV in foreign policy (not security and defence); greater synergy, and in the medium run merger, of the High Representative and Commissioner for External Relations posts, with joint position in both institutions.

By Kirsty Hughes, CEPS Senior Research Fellow.

For the full text of this paper see

EJeudi, 13 Juin 2002“</>CEPS.