A flurry of military activity in Belarus this week has caught the attention of Ukraine and the West as a potential sign that President Alexander Lukashenko may commit his army in support of Russia's flailing war effort in Ukraine.
Belarus has given its security forces broad powers under to prevent or respond to provocations from neighbouring countries, Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei told the Russian Izvestia newspaper in an interview published on Friday (14 October).
"The head of our country held a number of meetings with law enforcement agencies, and a counter-terrorist operation regime was introduced," Izvestia cited Makei as saying.
"There was information that some neighbouring states were planning provocations on, pretty much, the seizure of certain sections of the territory of Belarus."
Lukashenko has ordered troops to deploy with Russian forces near the Ukraine border, and his defence ministry says "combat readiness" drills are under way. On Tuesday, the interior ministry held exercises to eliminate "sabotage groups" near Yelsk, only 20 km from the border with Ukraine.Neither the foreign ministry nor the press office of Lukashenko responded immediately to Reuters' request for a confirmation of the so-called “provocations”.
The counter-terrorist operation regime gives security forces broad rights, including detentions to verify identities, barring movement, wiretapping and control of all communication and unimpeded entry of agents on any premises.
The Belta state news agency reported that at the meeting Lukashenko said that he had ordered the country's intelligence agency, the KGB, to carry out necessary counter-terrorist measures."We need to have options for counter-action, including military ones," Belta cited Lukashenko as saying. "(That's) in order to identify and localise threats in a timely manner, and, if necessary, adequately respond to any military manifestations against Belarus."
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has asked the Group of Seven (G7) countries to place an international observer mission near the border, while France warned Belarus it could face more Western sanctions if it deepened its involvement in Ukraine.
Belarus allowed itself to be used as a launchpad for Russia's 24 February invasion of Ukraine but has not joined the fighting directly. Analysts say Lukashenko would have no choice but to comply if Russian President Vladimir Putin demanded he enter the war, at a moment when Moscow is reeling from a series of defeats and facing unprecedented public criticism of its generals' failings.
Insignificant force
But they are sceptical that Belarus's intervention would make much of a difference. Its armed forces total just 48,000 personnel, according to the International Institute for Strategic Studies, and have not fought a war in more than 30 years of independence since the collapse of the Soviet Union."It's not exactly a combat-tested armed force," said Samir Puri, author of "Russia's Road to War with Ukraine".
He said, however, that the risk of intervention by Belarus could force Ukraine to beef up security in the north of the country, drawing forces away from the frontlines with Russia in the south and east.Belarus shares borders with three NATO members, Poland, Lithuania and Latvia, a factor that may also be part of Putin's calculations as he seeks to draw his ally into the war.
"It brings him much closer to NATO's borders. Putin can then say: 'I'm bringing the war to you. Do you really want it?' What happens if a missile goes astray?" a senior European official said.
Pavel Slunkin, a former Belarusian diplomat now at the European Council on Foreign Relations, said he did not believe Lukashenko was on the point of committing his forces to fight alongside Russia's, but he may be readying himself for that eventuality. "Maybe he hasn’t decided it yet but he understands that this could happen and in this scenario it’s better to have the army prepared."Slunkin said Lukashenko, who survived mass protests with Russian help in 2020 and depends on Putin both politically and economically, would be in no position to withhold military support if the Kremlin required it.
"His guarantee of keeping his power very much depends on Putin," he said. "Lukashenko can't survive without Russia's support and without repression. His dependence is so deep, he has almost no space for manoeuvre."
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has decided to conduct a "covert mobilization," according to Belarusian outlet @nashaniva. The first stage of the draft, which will be disguised as a "combat capability check," will only affect rural Belarusians.https://t.co/5QyuXtqpqm
— Meduza in English (@meduza_en) October 14, 2022
In Russian, there is a saying, “scaring a hedgehog with a naked ass.” This is basically the strategy of Lukashenka and Putin. Behind scary words and pictures, they hide their insecurity, incompetence, and fear. They are good at creating noise and useless when it comes to actions
— Franak Viačorka (@franakviacorka) October 14, 2022
(Edited by Georgi Gotev)