Interview: EU needs ‘strong, credible’ response to Russia

Although the EU must take care not to isolate Russia after its unilateral recognition of Georgia’s two breakaway provinces, European leaders must show Moscow that “there are consequences of this kind of behaviour” at their crisis summit on 1 September, Andrew Stroehlein of the International Crisis Group told EURACTIV in an interview.

Stroehlein believes Russia’s “unilateral” and “aggressive” actions have increased the chances of the EU agreeing on a common response to the situation, which he suggests is not at all what Moscow was expecting. “They were expecting the EU to split. They were expecting NATO to split. [They were expecting] all sorts of splits to develop.” 

But on the contrary, Russian action without prior consultation with the international community will “force Western capitals to bind more and more closely together because any sort of moderating voices in the West are simply shut out,” he believes. 

This could lead to the adoption of concrete EU sanctions, such as putting on hold talks on a new bilateral partnership agreement, Stroehlein noted. “Last week, we still didn’t think that European unity on the suspension of talks […] would be possible but after the latest Russian moves […], suspension is now more of a possibility.” 

But he cautioned that EU member states would have to achieve a “delicate balance”, adding that “getting into a Cold War, tit-for-tat mentality” would help nobody. “The Russians have to see the penalties very clearly but also the potential benefits they might get if they are going to cooperate with the international community,” he said, adding that isolation of Russia would be the “worst-case scenario” as it is not in anyone’s interest and could “just encourage it to take more and further aggressive actions”. 

Nevertheless, the scholar hinted that the speed with which Medvedev accepted the Duma’s recommendation to recognise the independence of the Georgian breakaway province could be a sign to Western capitals “that Russia is not interested in bargaining much anyway”.

“I think most observers expected there to be at least some delay, some pause after the Duma’s decision, and [expected] that the Russians would use this as some sort of bargaining chip.”

Asked about Russian attempts to link its recognition of South Ossetian independence to the case of Kosovo, which declared itself independent from Serbia in February (EURACTIV 18/02/08), the scholar replied: “It cannot be compared to Kosovo at all […] I do not really understand how they want to use Kosovo as a precedent anyway, since they are the ones that have been arguing against Kosovo’s independence. The logic is very frayed.” 

Unlike Kosovo, which has been recognised by 46 countries thus far, Stroehlein does not expect many countries to recognise South Ossetia as a sovereign state. “There are one or two states around the world and at least one CIS [Community of Independent States, comprising nine countries of the former Soviet Union; Georgia left the bloc in the wake of the war with Russia] state in particular, namely Belarus, that might jump on the bandwagon but I cannot imagine they are going to get a whole lot of support very quickly.” 

To read the interview in full, please click here.

Read more with Euractiv

France fears 'war' as Russia recognises Georgian regions

Western leaders reacted angrily after Russian President Dmitry Medvedev ignored their pleas and signed a decree recognising the Georgian breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia – a move condemned by the EU as a breach of international law.