In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s announcement to withdraw from a landmark deal curbing Iran’s nuclear programme, the leaders of Britain, France and Germany who signed the agreement published a joint statement saying they will continue to stick by it.
President Donald Trump pulled out from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPoA), the official name of the 2015 deal curbing Iran’s nuclear on Tuesday (8 May), defying European pleas and prompting international outcry.
Trump’s decision to withdraw from the Iran deal drew comparisons with his move last June to pull out from the Paris climate agreement. Similarly, the European reaction to continue with the Paris deal bears resemblance with the vow to forge ahead with the Iran deal.
The big difference however is that this time the US prepares to slam heavy sanctions on its allies who are doing business in Iran. Another aspect is the toxic effect of this announcement for the Middle East, the EU’s backyard.
Trump's decision to withdraw from #IranDeal is his biggest slap in the face to date to US allies. More significant than TPP withdrawal, Paris withdrawal, Jerusalem decision, or “trade war”. We stand united on our commitments Go ahead @FedericaMog @eu_eeas ! pic.twitter.com/wEAFrfXA0K
— EESC President (@EESC_President) May 8, 2018
Trump poured scorn on the “disastrous” accord, describing it as an “embarrassment” to the United States that does nothing to contain Iran’s nuclear ambitions.
The Iran Deal is defective at its core. If we do nothing, we know what will happen. In just a short time, the world’s leading state sponsor of terror will be on the cusp of acquiring the world’s most dangerous weapons…. pic.twitter.com/58qwBLzxIH
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 8, 2018
“I am announcing today that the United States will withdraw from the Iran nuclear deal,” Trump said in an address to the nation from the White House.
Statement on the Iran Nuclear Deal: https://t.co/O3SpryCKkc
— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) May 8, 2018
Slapping aside more than a decade and a half of careful diplomacy by Britain, China, France, Germany, Iran, Russia and past US administrations, Trump called for a “new and lasting deal.”
That grand bargain, he said, would have to include not just deeper restrictions on Iran’s nuclear programme, but on its ballistic missiles and support for militant groups across the Middle East.
“We cannot prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb under the decaying and rotten structure of the current agreement,” he claimed.
“We will not allow American cities to be threatened with destruction and we will not allow a regime that chants ‘Death to America’ to gain access to the most deadly weapons on Earth.”
It remains far from clear if the international community, or Iran, will play along.
Iran’s President Hassan Rouhani — whose standing at home now risks being undermined by the deal’s collapse — was furious, accusing Trump of “psychological warfare”.
Trump’s onerous demands and his warning that Iranians deserve better than their current “dictatorship” will only heighten suspicions his ultimate goal is regime change.
“If the regime continues its nuclear aspirations, it will have bigger problems than it has ever had before,” he warned.
Hawkish US officials believe that after 38 years in power, Iran’s clerical regime is substantially weakened by domestic economic pressure, changing demography, public demonstrations, and costly foreign military adventures.
The decision marked a stark diplomatic defeat for Europe, whose leaders, repeatedly and in person, begged the mercurial US leader to think again.
In a joint statement, Germany’s Angela Merkel, Britain’s Theresa May and France’s Emmanuel Macron voiced their “regret and concern” at Trump’s decision.
British PM May, German Chancellor Merkel and French Pres. Macron issue joint statement expressing "regret and concern" following Pres. Trump's Iran nuclear deal announcement:
— NBC News (@NBCNews) May 8, 2018
France, Germany, and the UK regret the U.S. decision to leave the JCPOA. The nuclear non-proliferation regime is at stake.
— Emmanuel Macron (@EmmanuelMacron) May 8, 2018
European firms doing business in Iran now have a six month deadline to wind up investments, or risk US sanctions, Trump’s hawkish advisor John Bolton warned, while ruling out talk of reconsideration.
“We’re out of the deal. We’re out of the deal. We’re out of the deal,” he said.
EU foreign affairs chief Federica Mogherini said in a statement that the nuclear deal “is not a bilateral agreement and it is not in the hands of any single country to terminate it unilaterally”.
— European External Action Service – EEAS ?? (@eu_eeas) May 8, 2018
She said she was “particularly worried” by the announced new sanctions.
“I will consult with all our partners in the coming hours and days to assess their implications. The European Union is determined to act in accordance with its security interests and to protect its economic investments.”
Washington’s new ambassador to Berlin, Richard Grenell, said on Twitter: “US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.”
As @realDonaldTrump said, US sanctions will target critical sectors of Iran’s economy. German companies doing business in Iran should wind down operations immediately.
— Richard Grenell (@RichardGrenell) May 8, 2018
And Treasury Secretary Stephen Mnuchin made it clear that Washington was acting “under both our primary and secondary sanctions authorities,” meaning that European firms with investments or operations in the United States could be targeted if they continue to trade with Iran.
In a sign of the depth of European displeasure, plans are already being drawn up in Brussels to introduce measures blocking US sanctions, an extremely rare move against an allied government.
While Iran’s arch foes in Israel and Saudi Arabia welcomed Trump’s decision, signatories to the existing deal vowed to plow ahead without the United States.
Trump’s decision offers him a domestic political victory, fulfilling a longstanding campaign promise and underscoring his no nonsense political brand.
But the long term impact for American foreign policy and for the Middle East was less clear.
Former US president Barack Obama — whose administration inked the deal — made a rare public criticism of his successor, describing Trump’s decision to abandon the Iran nuclear deal as “misguided” and a “serious mistake.”
“The consistent flouting of agreements that our country is a party to risks eroding America’s credibility, and puts us at odds with the world’s major powers.”
In contrast, Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who last week released a trove of intelligence on a pre-2003 Iranian plan to develop a nuclear weapon which Trump cited approvingly in his speech, was overjoyed.
“Israel fully supports President Trump’s bold decision today to reject the disastrous nuclear deal,” Netanyahu said, in a televised address.
Shortly after, Syrian state media reported nine pro-government fighters were killed in an Israeli missile strike near Damascus, where Iranian proxies are known to operate.
Israel had already opened bomb shelters and put the military on high alert in case of attack from the Iranian forces deployed in Syria in defence of Bashar al-Assad’s regime.
Impact on oil prices
Energy industry insiders say Trump’s tough stance on Iran will probably keep oil prices higher than they would otherwise be.
The European Commission was unable yesterday to answer questions how would higher oil prices impact on the European economies.
.@realDonaldTrump's verdict on #Iran deal will be not only his most important decision on diplomatic front-the economic impact may be huge too. In Spain, if oil prices reach $75, it would cost its econ -0.7% of GDP & 0.8% fall in employment (150.000 more unemployed ppl)
— Jorge Valero (@europressos) May 8, 2018