‘Unless Ukraine defeats Russia soon, there will be massive war in Europe’

Most probably during the next week we will observe the intensification of the Russian military aggression in the Donetsk and Luhansk regions as well as the rest of Ukraine, with continuous rocket, UAV and missile attacks, writes Roman Rukomeda.

Roman Rukomeda is a Ukrainian political analyst. This is his 78th account of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

The 354th day of massive Russian aggression against Ukraine has come to an end.  It seems that Russian aggressors have started or are preparing to start their announced new offensive in the East of Ukraine. Their goal is to capture administrative territories of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions. It is possible to confirm the beginning of the Russian new offensive from the growing intensity of fights in the Eastern direction.

The number of Russian casualties and losses announced in daily briefs by the Ukrainian General Staff has increased from 500-800 to 900-1100 soldiers and more than twice in the numbers of destroyed tanks, armoured vehicles, artillery howitzers and other units.

For now, we see some plodding progress of the Russian offensive with hefty casualties. This creates a zone of scorched earth in the East of Ukraine as the battle line is an area that is now impossible for people to live in. This is why Ukraine call the Russian aggression a genocide against the Ukrainian nation, as Russian terrorists either kill Ukrainian people or entirely destroy their towns and houses, making further living on the war territories impossible.

In the last few days, there was additional information that Russian terrorists are planning to use their private military companies, such as the Wagner Group, to destabilise other European states. For example, Ukrainian intelligence shared information with the Moldovan government about Russian plans to attack its stability. On the other hand, there is information that Russian mercenaries from the Wagner Group are planning to be used to fuel a new conflict in the Balkans.

Russian nuclear terrorism continues to be a significant threat to Ukraine and all of Europe. According to the information from Ukrainian authorities, due to the uncontrolled discharge of water at the Kakhovska hydropower plant, the water level in the Kakhovska reservoir is rapidly decreasing as the discharge volume exceeds the volume of filling. The purpose of draining the reservoir may be to partially flood the area south of the dam to prevent Ukrainian forces from crossing the Dnipro river.

It is noted that the provision of drinking water for hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and almost half a million acres of agricultural land is at risk. However, the most important thing is that without water in the Kakhovska reservoir, the cooling system of the Zaporizhzhya NPP will not be able to work, risking a nuclear disaster.

Last week the International Atomic Energy Agency announced its awareness of the risks, but now the situation and threat of a nuclear accident at the Zaporizhzhya nuclear power plant demands more action.

After the EU-Ukraine summit, there is a clear set of goals Ukraine needs to reach and perform to boost its EU integration. It is evident that without reforms, the Ukrainian government will receive less financial help from the EU and other foreign partners. This gives no other options for Ukrainian politicians to change the public administration and the main problematic areas (such as the judiciary, for example), even in war mode, despite all the difficulties of transformations.

Ukrainian society remains very active, though practical. Most Ukrainians generally understand the necessity to run this marathon for survival and to find a new place and role for Ukraine after the war's end.

It is already clear that the restoration process will take a very long time and a lot of effort, as almost one-third of Ukrainian territory is full of landmines and other explosives.

At least one-fourth of Ukrainians, up to 10 million people, will have to restart their lives from scratch as internal or external migrants, building new homes and starting new jobs. This will be a tremendous challenge for Ukrainian society.

But first, Ukraine must fulfil its historic mission in the 21st century - defeat Putin's Russia, which has become a threat to all Western democratic states, and Ukraine will do it with the help of all its partners and friends.