Est. 2min 07-12-2004 (updated: 05-06-2012 ) Euractiv is part of the Trust Project >>> Languages: Français | DeutschPrint Email Facebook X LinkedIn WhatsApp Telegram The crisis in Ukraine has brought to the fore the question of whether the EU should move to offer the country a place in the Union or take a more ‘wait and see’ attitude. While the EU’s message to the leaders in Kiev is “unequivocal” with regard to solving the crisis that has emerged from the disputed 21 November elections (“the democratic decision of Ukrainians must be respected,” said Commissioner for External Relations Benita Ferrero-Waldner), in the broader context of defining a solid framework and lasting prospects for co-operation with Ukraine, the Union has been sticking with the “do not expect too much too soon” attitude. The EU’s declared aim has been to create a “ring of friends” around its external borders. To this end, the Union has devised so-called ‘action plans’ that offer each neighbourhood partner an “ambitious and above all tailored” package. While Ferrero-Waldner has made it clear that “the question of Ukrainian entry into the EU is not on the agenda”, in the same breath she sweetened the pill by adding that “it is clear that we are not closing any doors”. The leader of Ukraine’s opposition, Viktor Yushchenko, has said that he would aim to initiate membership talks with the EU and NATO within five years of his accession to power. At the same time, he also declared that he would not break the relationship with Russia. The Ukraine crisis, meanwhile, has brought to the fore the similarly intricate issue of the EU’s relationship with Russia. The political tug-of-war within Ukraine appears to come coupled with a clear need for the EU to prevent the crisis from being perceived as if the choice for Kiev was “simply” between Moscow and Brussels, or East and West. Read more with Euractiv Secession looms as Ukraine crisis deepensUkraine's post-presidential election crisis has intensified further, with no sign of rapprochement between the two contenders or an easing of the street blockades. The country appears set to split at the seams. PositionsIn their article arguing against the Ukraine crisis being seen simply as a "battleground of a new geopolitical great game between East and West", Katinka Barysch and Charles Grant of the Centre for European Reform point to the need for the EU to "rethink its long-standing position that Ukraine 'has as much reason to be in the EU as New Zealand', in the words of Romano Prodi". At the same time, they add the caveat that "now is not the time to talk about Ukraine becoming an EU member". In the authors' opinion, Moscow should clearly side with Viktor Yushchenko's presidency and should not "regard the installation of democratic governments in Russia's near abroad as a threat". This, they conclude, "would do wonders for Russia's troubled relations with the EU". Other analysts and politicians, however, see the time as ripe for the EU to make markedly stronger gestures to Ukraine, notably by offering the definite prospect of membership once the country were to fulfil the related criteria. For one, former Polish foreign minister Bronislaw Geremek, who is now an MEP, has been quoted by the press as saying that Brussels should "tell Ukraine now that there is a place for it within the European Union". The Centre for European Reform's Kataryna Wolczuk is convinced that although the EU's new neighbourhood policy is a "welcome attempt", its incentives are "not strong enough to affect policy choices in countries such as Ukraine". For her the "EU's refusal to even talk about the possibility of membership looks untenable". The European Policy Centre's Wojciech Saryusz-Wolski believes that "if there are fast democratic changes in Ukraine it will completely change the situation". Once that happens, "it would be very difficult, on objective grounds, for the EU to refuse" an Ukrainian bid. Furthermore, he warns that "the EU cannot turn its back on Ukraine in splendid isolation, as the future costs might be simply too high to bear". Meanwhile, Russia - fresh out from a post-Soviet low in its relations with the EU caused at least partly by the Union's latest enlargement - is weighing the potentials of the EU's "Four Common Spaces" model for co-existence and simultaneously it is also considering setting up an "Eastern EU" (with the involvement of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Belarus) in order to regain its 'great power' role in international politics as soon as possible. Ukraine is known to be a cornerstone of this emerging model. It appears clear that neither the EU nor Russia are willing to settle for a "common neighbouring area" status for the western CIS states (Ukraine being one of them), and thus Ukraine's apparent disillusionment with the EU's 'lukewarm' attitude may prompt Kiev to inch further towards identifying with Moscow's plans. Meanwhile, Washington is looking at the developments with increasing discomfort. The US publicly insists that it is not looking at Ukraine "through the prism" of US-Russia relations, ie as an East-West confrontation. Washington clearly needs Russian President Vladimir Putin's help in countering terrorism and handling the potential nuclear crises in Iran and North Korea. At the same time, press reports already refer to pending "tactical changes" in the State Department, which in turn may have indirect implications on EU-US ties. BackgroundFaced with the prolonged political crisis in Ukraine, the EU is having to tread a fine line between holding out the prospect of closer ties once the stand-off is resolved and at the same time not overcommitting as regards future EU membership. As the Ukraine crisis has major implications on the EU's relationship with Russia, the stakes remain exceptionally high. Relations between the EU and Ukraine have been based on a Partnership and Co-operation Agreement since 1994. Ukraine has never made a formal application for EU membership. The EU has also offered Ukraine a place in its European Neighbourhood Policy framework. Negotiations are currently underway on the underlying three-year Action Plan, which the Commission expects will deepen bilateral ties. Timeline The issue of the EU's relationship with Ukraine is likely to feature high on the agenda of the upcoming mid-December summit of the member states' leaders. The Supreme Court of Ukraine has declared null and void the returns of the presidential run-off of 21 November and ruled that the run-off should be repeated on 26 December. Premier Viktor Yanukovich and opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko will again contend for the presidency. Further ReadingEU official documents GD Außenbeziehungen:EU-Ukraine relations GD Außenbeziehungen:Situation in Ukraine(speech by Commissioner Benita Ferrero-Waldner, 1 Dec 2004) GD Außenbeziehungen:The European Neighbourhood Policy NGOs and Think-Tanks CIS-Barometer:Strategic Neighbourhood: EU-Europe versus EU-East Centre for European Reform:Russia, the EU and Ukraine: not a tug of war Centre for European Reform:Ukraine's European choice The European Policy Centre:Ukraine’s watershed - the Presidential Elections 2004 Press articles Financial Times:Echoes of cold war as Bush and Putin differ over Ukraine polls Interfax:Supreme Court rules to hold repeated runoff voting on Dec 26
