Analysis: What future for the Lukashenka regime?

This report, published by the Polish Batory Foundation, calls on the EU to support democratisation efforts in Belarus.

The paper asserts that President Lukashenka’s re-election, and the suppression of the opposition that coincided with it, can not be described as a fundamental turning point. However, it has resulted in important changes within the regime as well as in the opposition communities and Belarusian society. Moreover, it has raised Belarus in the consciousness of EU policymakers as never before. There is now a visible uneasiness with the presence of the ‘last dictatorship in Europe’ on the EU’s doorstep.

Although the authors write that Belarus is not a crucial problem for the EU, they do believe that it raises serious questions concerning:

• The EU’s attachment to principles such as human rights and democracy;
• the efficiency of EU foreign policy, in this case – the European Neighbourhood Policy, and;
• EU relations with Russia.

The paper comes to the following conclusions for the EU:

• The democratisation of Belarus can only take place by changing the government in the country;
• support from the EU and USA for independent circles and the democratic opposition is crucial if the current regime is to change, and;
• the EU and the USA cannot allow themselves to be completely silent concerning events in Belarus simply to avoid irritating Russia.

Read the full paper below: