Est. 5min 24-11-2004 (updated: 29-01-2010 ) Euractiv is part of the Trust Project >>> Languages: Français | DeutschPrint Email Facebook X LinkedIn WhatsApp Telegram Following the contested second round of presidential elections in Ukraine and with fears of civil strife between the thousands of opposition supporters protesting and security authorities in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities, Wojciech Sarysz-Wolski examines the factors leading up to the present volatile situation and outlines possible EU responses. The article was published by the European Policy Centre . Introduction On 21 November Ukraine held run-off Presidential elections between current Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, representing the present ruling elite, and Viktor Yushchenko, the leader of “Our Ukraine,” the largest opposition block. The Ukrainian Central Election Commission reported on the 23 November that with 99.48% percent of the vote counted, Mr. Yanukovych had garnered 49.39% percent of the vote, while Mr. Yushchenko’s trailed him at 46.69%. The official numbers favouring Yanukovych are mainly the results of the east-Ukrainian voting constituencies, like Donetsk, which claimed a turnout of 96%, with all votes going to the current premier. Meanwhile, the two independent exit polls show a Yushchenko victory: the opposition candidate leads Prime Minister Yanukovych by 12% in one (54% to 43%) and 3% in the other (49.7% to 46.7%). Representatives of the international community, including election observers from the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE) have criticized this second round of elections as failing to meet democratic standards. Only Russian President Vladimir Putin seems to disagree. As well as the objections voiced by foreign observers, the protests in the country – particularly in the capital Kiev – are growing ever more vocal and observers fear civil unrest might be looming. The Yushchenko camp has rejected the official figures given by the Central Election Commission and has pointed to reports of electoral fraud. Already seven local municipalities, including Lviv and Kiev have refused to accept Mr. Yanukovych’s alleged victory and have proclaimed the opposition leader as the new president. At the same time, street rallies in almost all the major cities across the country are gathering momentum. The biggest protest, which began at the Kiev’s Independence Square on the evening of the election, has turned into a demonstration of over two hundred thousand people. With the tensions mounting, and a possible standoff with security forces possible, the country’s difficulties in deciding its identity and its future orientation become all the more clear. Political Scene Similar to most of the newly independent countries that arose out of the ruins of the USSR, the Ukrainian political sphere is highly interlinked with the business circles. The privatisation processes that began in the 1990’s have made these two groups dependent on one another to the extent that they are almost undistinguishable. The political and business power in Ukraine lies in hands of three main oligarchic groups. These are the so-called Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk and Kiev clans. Current President Leonid Kuchma is a member of the Dnipropetrovsk group. The Donetsk group is based on the Donbas’ Industrial Group (ISD), a huge holding controlling hundreds of heavy industry companies in eastern Ukraine, which is currently expanding its foothold in the EU-based businesses. Prime Minister Yanukovych is assumed to be a member of the Donetsk group. As for the Kiev clan, Viktor Medvedchuk – the head of the presidential administration and the leader of Social Democratic Party of Ukraine-united (SDPU-o), plays an important role in it. He is perceived to be one of the most important representatives of Russian interests in Ukraine and controls a large segment of the media. The parliamentary support for the government consists of highly heterogeneous groups representing various business, political and regional interests that are held together only by their joint fear of the opposition forces. The latter managed to present itself as a united front, with the radical opposition Yuliya Tymoshenko’s Bloc supporting Mr. Yushchenko’s candidature for Presidency. His own bloc – currently the biggest single group in the Parliamentary Assembly – represents a coalition of ten centre-right parties, which he managed to rally around him in 2002. Among the post-Soviet new independent states, Ukraine has one of the most vibrant opposition forces, with solid internal discipline, good organization and financial backing. Although far from being a model democracy, Ukraine is nevertheless one of the few places east of the EU in which voters seemingly have a real political alternative and where civil society plays an important role. Read the full article on the European Policy Centre website .
