Borissov’s only options for governing: four-party coalition, shadow majority

Bulgaria's parliament will welcome a record eight parties for a new term after the weekend's snap elections, which saw former prime minister and GERB leader Boyko Borisov emerge victorious, although he will need to form a four-party coalition or shadow majority to govern.

The GERB party of Borissov won the elections with 26.46% of the vote, while the pro-European liberal coalition We Continue the Change-Democratic Bulgaria (PP-DB) was the second political force with 14.23%.

However, a coalition with both formations will not be enough for Borissov to form a government, meaning he must seek support from at least three other parties.

Possible partners could include the radical pro-Russian Revival party, which came third with 13.38%, or the DPS-New Beginning formation of Delyan Peevski, which came fourth with 11.45%. Another possibility is Ahmed Dogan's Alliance for Rights and Freedoms (APS), which won 7.49%. Dogan is the founder of DPS, but Peevski, who is under US sanctions, split the party just before the elections.

The Bulgarian Socialist Party also entered parliament with 7.57%, having failed to move up from the bottom despite forming a left-wing coalition in the run-up to the vote. Slavi Trifonov's populist party, There is Such a People (ITN), got 6.79%.

Further behind was the radical MECH party of former ITN MP Radostin Vassilev (4.59%), which gained support by calling for Orban-style authoritarian rule.

Meanwhile, the populist pro-Russian party Velichie did not enter parliament, coming close to the 4% threshold with 3.999% - a result the leading party GERB will benefit from as it will receive the largest share in the MP redistribution.

Even so, more than 29% of Bulgarian voters supported radical and populist formations, which may have to be considered during coalition talks.

With this vote, one option for Borissov is to seek a coalition with the PP-DB, the people around Dogan and a fourth partner. The choice here comes down to ITN and the BSP, with the Socialists the more likely option because of their more moderate rhetoric.

Borissov has shown that he can work well with independent MPs, which could happen very quickly in the event of a possible break-up of the MECH parliamentary group.

The second option for GERB is to form a government with Peevski. This scenario would allow for negotiations with ITN and BSP, again relying on the defection of independent MPs from the two smallest parties.

The third scenario involves a coalition government without a clear minority and relying on floating support in parliament. Borissov and Peevski have always been strong at gathering such support.

Gallup political analyst Parvan Simeonov commented that Borissov would not want to end "any of his collaborations with Peevski's New Beginning" and form a minority government relying on floating support.

"Borissov will figure out some way to involve everyone and dilute his responsibility", Simeonov added.

In his view, President Rumen Radev is on his way out.

"If Radev scares them (the parties), they should find moves against each other. They are using Radev as a scarecrow. The time is coming when an alternative to all of them will be sought. If you don't play your game well, a fresh team will come out and beat you next time. These are the last seconds for this party system in Bulgaria if it does not find the strength to show that it represents the people," Simeonov said.

Political analyst Daniel Smilov told bTV that GERB does not want to govern with the PP-DB because it has set conditions that are unacceptable to it, such as a reform of the prosecutor's office.

"The question is whether GERB can go beyond this limit. On the other hand, they don't want to govern without the PP-DB because they fear protests or an international backlash. They are waiting for the US elections in the hope that at least the external pressure will decrease," Smilov said.

Political analyst Andrey Raychev said that if Donald Trump wins the upcoming US presidential elections, GERB will feel stronger, and any move will be possible.

However, he added that if Kamala Harris wins, there will be no way to bypass the PP-DB.

Expectations are that if there is a government at all, it will be unstable, and there is a strong likelihood of another early election next year.

(Krassen Nikolov | Euractiv.bg)