Elections that matter: what’s in store for Europe for the rest of 2023

With Sunday’s snap general election in Spain marking the last European election before the summer recess, EURACTIV and EuropeElects will take a deep dive into how elections could shape countries across Europe for the rest of the year.

Spanish voters are heading to the polls in a snap parliamentary election on Sunday.

Despite a nationwide polling ban that is now in effect, earlier polls point to a possible victory of the right-wing Partido Popular (PP), which will have to ally with the far-right VOX party  – though votes may not be enough to beat a possible left-wing coalition between sitting Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez’s socialist party and the new left-wing platform Sumar.

After the summer break, the next vote will be in Slovakia, which is scheduled to hold a snap election on 30 September.

A non-partisan government currently governs the country under Prime Minister Ľudovít Ódor after the right-of-centre government collapsed in May. If elections were held today, Smer and Hlas, both affiliated with the European Socialists (PES), would win the most votes with about 18% each, according to Europe Elects’ polling average. Unlike the socialist EU S&D political group it is affiliated with, Smer is highly critical of non-European immigration.

The Progressive Slovakia (PS, Renew Europe) party, meanwhile, has been steadily rising in the polls over the past years and is now polling at about 14%.

It is currently unclear whether Hlas will cooperate with Smer or PS, which will also have important implications for the country’s future direction regarding Ukraine. PS is very supportive of the government in Kyiv, while Smer is more critical of supporting the country against Russian aggression.

After Slovakia, it will be the turn of Luxembourg, with citizens set to head to the polls on 8 October to elect a new parliament.

While the current government of Prime Minister Xavier Bettel includes his own liberal Democratic Party (DP, Renew Europe), the Social Democrats, and the Greens, it is unclear whether he will be able to defend his parliamentary majority or his position as prime minister. This is because the Social Democrats may outperform his party DP, even if the coalition retains its majority, according to April’s TNS Ilres poll.

Whether this will play into the hands of the centre-right, currently in opposition, appears unlikely as current polls point to the Pirate Party being on course to triple their seat count.

Another parliamentary election will take place in Poland, which has been set for autumn though no precise date has yet been announced.

Polling at about 35% is the Zjednoczona Prawica alliance dominated by the ruling national-conservative PiS party (ECR) under Jarosław Kaczyński – eight percentage points less than the score it got in the 2019 elections.

On the side of the opposition, the main centrist Koalicja Obywatelska alliance set up by Poland’s former president and ex-European Council president Donald Tusk (PO, EPP), is polling at about 32%, five points higher than in 2019.

Whether PiS’s nearly 10-year-rule will come to an end this time will also depend on the performance of the centrist Trzecia Droga (EPP, Renew Europe) alliance (10%) and the centre-left Lewica (S&D) alliance (8%), which may support a government led by the Koalicja Obywatelska (EPP, Renew Europe, Greens). 

Another parliamentary election, which was recently triggered by now-former prime minister Mark Rutte, will be held in the Netherlands on 22 November.

Polls suggest a tight race between the left-of-centre PvdA/GL (S&D, Greens/EFA) alliance, the agrarian BBB party and the previously ruling party, VVD.

With the election race projected to be tight, marked by constantly shifting polls, the highly fragmented political landscape in which none of the three largest parties reach the 20%-threshold makes it clear that no party will govern alone.

Parliament elections and referendums will also be held in Switzerland this autumn, while national parliament by-elections will take place in the Georgian constituency of Gori-Kaspi, and San Marino is set to get a new head of state on 1 October.

Meanwhile, indirect Senate elections will occur in France on 24 September, while Åland and Gibraltar are set to hold parliament elections on 15 October.

Regarding regional elections, these will be held in Norway on 11 September; in Bavaria and Hesse on 8 October; in Greece on 8 October and 15 October; in Trentino and South Tyrol on 22 October and in Madeira before the end of October.

As for local elections, these are expected to take place in Armenia on 17 September, in Bulgaria on 27 October, and in Moldova on 29 October. Where election dates have not been set yet, votes may be pushed to the new year.

(Thobias Gerhard Schmincke, EuropeElects)