EU elections projection: Le Pen, Meloni soar as Germany veers left with Wagenknecht

While Germany’s new leftist breakaway party led by Sahra Wagenknecht soars with seven seats to the detriment of far-right AfD, Italy’s Fratelli d’Italia and France’s Rassemblement National are also on the rise, according to mid-February’s Europe Elects projections for Euractiv. 

Having departed Germany’s traditional left party Die Linke in October, the new party Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) entered projections for the first time at the end of January with three seats and is currently projected to win seven. 

Wagenknecht’s natural alliance in the European Parliament is The Left group, alongside Die Linke, currently projected to fall to three seats, and the Animal Protection Party, which is expected to hold one seat.

If BSW ultimately joins, Wagenknecht’s soaring popularity would boost the German representation in The Left group in the European Parliament to 11 seats, five more than in 2019 – the highest in the Parliament’s history. 

With this push, The Left group is now projected to have 44 seats and, only four seats away from the Greens/EFA group, is edging closer to becoming the Parliament’s sixth force. 

Wagenknecht’s seven seats would make it the leading party in The Left, above Ireland’s Sinn Féin and La France Insoumise projected to score six seats each, giving the new German left party a claim to the group leadership – while leaving its opposing Die Linke party in an awkward position as its leader, Martin Schirdewan, could lose The Left’s presidency. 

On the other side of the spectrum, far-right AfD has lost four seats compared to the late-January projections, to 18. 

The drop follows weeks of protests against the far-right party after a meeting with neo-Nazis in mid-January to plot ‘remigration’ became public, which may have driven voters to shift to Wagenknecht. 

Differentiating herself from Die Linke, Wagenknecht has a more socially conservative and Eurosceptic tone  – a shift that has made her particularly popular with far-right AfD and conservative voters, political scientists point out. 

Looking at the centre, liberal FDP has lost two seats since the last projections to four, down one compared to 2019 results.

Far-right keeps winning in France and Italy

Marine Le Pen’s far-right Rassemblement National scores three more seats compared to late-January projections, certifying a steady growth since 2019 from 22 to 29 seats currently. The 29 seats include two of L’avenir française, a far-right party affiliated to RN.

Such results would solidify Le Pen’s grip over the ID group, whose leadership currently belongs to Italy’s Lega. Matteo Salvini’s party is projected to win eight seats down from 28 in 2019.

Feeding on Lega’s decreasing popularity, Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s Fratelli d’Italia is projected to get 25 seats, two more than in Euractiv’s late-January projection. 

Meloni, who may run as the party’s lead candidate in the elections as Corriere della Sera reports, is expected to certify her party’s dominance over the other Italian right-wing forces while cementing her influence in the European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group. 

Other key developments in the last two weeks

• Far-right Identity and Democracy (ID) group earns one seat, up to 92.
• The ECR group earns three new seats, up to 83, due to the incorporation of the French far-right Reconquête! Party.
• The liberal Renew Europe group wins two seats, up to 84.
• The Greens/EFA group loses three seats, down to 48.
• Romania’s far-right S.O.S party, which seeks to join ID, loses its two projected seats, down to zero. 

* Infographics and data input by Jakub Rogowiecki and Mathew Nicolson, Europe Elects. 

** Europe Elects is Euractiv’s polling provider, find their methodology here.

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