Germany’s social democrats prevail in east German stronghold

Chancellor Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party (SPD) narrowly beat the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) in the highly contested state elections of Brandenburg on Sunday (22 September), according to the exit polls, drawing in a record voting turnout of 74%.

For the struggling social democrats of Chancellor Olaf Scholz, the Eastern German state of Brandenburg has been a stronghold since the German reunification.

But against the rising support of the far right, many saw this weekend as a test for the Chancellor’s ambition to run again for next year’s national elections.

The elections, calling 2.1 million voters to the ballot, promised to be a head-to-head race between the far-right AfD (ESN) and the governing SPD (S&D), bringing a record turnout of 74%, according to infratest dimap.

According to the exit polls, the social democrats prevailed, winning 31% of the popular vote, with the far-right AfD close behind with 30%.

The conservative CDU (EPP) and the newly formed leftist movement BSW shared the third place with 12%. While the Conservatives are the major opposition force nationally, they are a junior partner in a coalition with the SPD and the Greens in Brandenburg.

The Greens are on the brim of the 5% threshold to stay in power in the parliament.

https://x.com/EuropeElects/status/1837892290725159284

With the SPD win, Scholz – noticeably absent during the local election campaign – has gained a grace period against internal critics. After the state elections in Thuringia and Saxony earlier this month, this was the third test for the Chancellor and his government.

Finding a new government in Brandenburg will be a challenge. While all major parties have promised not to work with the far-right AfD, the continuation of the current coalition between SPD, conservative CDU, and the Greens depends on whether the latter secure enough votes to barely stay above the 5% threshold, as at the moment the votes are still being counted. 

This could elevate the newly formed leftist movement of Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) into a kingmaker.

[Edited by Martina Monti]