Greek centre-right set to win second election round

Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis' centre-right New Democracy is leading current polls with enough predicted votes to win a majority of seats ahead of a snap election that was called after no party won a majority to form a government in elections last month.

Early polls suggest that the incumbent's strategy is working. His centre-right New Democracy (EPP Group in the EU Parliament) is polling at about 42.1% (May election result: 40.8%), enough to win a majority of seats according to Metron Analysis, which projects 162 out of 300 seats for Mitsotakis's party.

The main opposition party, the left-wing SYRIZA (Left Group in the European Parliament), remains at its May election result of 20% in the Europe Elects polling average.

The other parliamentary left-of-centre parties do not seem to profit from the weakness of SYRIZA. The social democratic PASOK-KINAL (S&D Group in the EU Parliament) is polling at 12% (+1 compared to the May election); the communist KKE (Non-Inscrits in the EU Parliament) remains at 7%.

Two new parties are set to enter parliament: The 'Course of Freedom' (PE) party of former parliamentary speaker and SYRIZA member Zoe Konstantopoulou is polling at 4.5%, clearly above the 3% required to enter parliament. The party was founded in 2016 but never won national or EU parliamentary representation.

In the May election, the party won - unexpectedly - 2.9%, bringing it very close to the threshold, signalling to potential voters that Course of Freedom that a vote in the upcoming election is not 'wasted' as there is a chance for the party to win seats.

The right-wing NIKI (*) party finds itself in a similar situation. It won 2.9% in the May election. NIKI probably profited from banning other far-right parties before the election and is now polling at 3.8%.

The national-conservative EL (ECR Group in the EU Parliament) is set to win representation again with about 4% of the vote. However, the right-wing electorate in Greece is not exactly loyal to particular parties, so until election day, NIKI may vacuum up enough votes from EL to undermine their support below the threshold/

The left-wing and transnational MeRa25 party of Yanis Varoufakis is set to remain outside of parliament with about 2% after losing representation in the May election.

(Tobias Gerhard Schminke| EuropeElects)