Greens and centre-right face off in Finland’s tight presidential race

The Finnish presidency will be fought between two former foreign ministers, the centre-right Kokoomus’ Alexander Stubb and the Greens’ Pekka Haavisto, with both on 26% and 23%, respectively and far ahead of the other candidates, the latest Europe Elects poll for Euractiv ahead of Sunday’s vote shows.

The winner will succeed incumbent President Sauli Niinisto, who is stepping down after two six-year terms, at a time when Finland’s accession to NATO last April, prompted by neighbouring Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, has ushered in a new era.

Finland’s foreign policy is traditionally the responsibility of the president, who leads foreign policy in cooperation with the government.

With the election set for Sunday and a possible second round on 11 February, Stubb is currently leading the race with 26% in the polls.

Trailing not so far behind is Haavisto with 23%, according to the latest Europe Elects projections for Euractiv.

While the race between these foreign policy giants is close, the same cannot be said for third place, as all other candidates are at least six percentage points behind Haavisto in the latest polls.

The return of Stubb

Stubb is a centre-right politician and professor who began his political career in 2004 as an MEP for the European People’s Party (EPP).

He also served as foreign minister under then-prime minister Jyrki Katainen between 2008 and 2011, minister of European affairs and foreign trade from 2011, and prime minister and leader of the National Coalition Party (NCP) after Katainen resigned in 2014. Stubb became finance minister in 2015 after being ousted from parliament amid an economic slump.

When he ‘permanently’ left politics in 2017, Stubb began a three-year term as vice-president of the European Investment Bank and began teaching at the European University Institute’s School of Transnational Governance.

Even before his political career began, Stubb was interested in foreign affairs and worked as a researcher for the Finnish Foreign Ministry in 1995, according to his CV on the College of Europe website.

Stubb said this interest in foreign affairs persuaded him to return to politics, citing Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as the main reason for running for the presidency. The current Prime Minister, Petteri Orpo, also asked him to run for president.

During his time as prime minister, Stubb said he supported Finland’s accession to NATO, but membership was not on the NCP’s programme in 2014.

A popular figure

Compared to his rivals, Haavisto brings a more colourful political history. The former foreign minister is one of Finland’s most popular politicians, topping recent presidential polls in several media outlets.

He was the runner-up in the 2012 and 2018 presidential elections but was beaten by the incumbent, Niinistö.

In addition to serving as foreign minister between 2019 and 2023, he was minister of development cooperation from 1995 to 1999 and 2013 to 2014, minister of property management (under Stubb) from 2013 to 2014, and minister of the environment from 1995 to 1999.

He has twice chaired the Green League and was also leader of the European Green Party from 2000-2006. He was an MP from 1987 to 1995 and returned to parliament after a 12-year break, where he has been ever since.

In parliament, Haavisto was responsible for foreign affairs and the Nordic neighbourhood. He has also had experience as a member of the Helsinki City Council, the Board of Directors, the Property Committee and the Tax Committee.

During his time at the UN, Haavisto worked with the Environment Programme’s missions in war zones and helped facilitate peace talks in Darfur in 2007, where he served as the EU’s special envoy. From 2009 to 2017, Haavisto continued his diplomatic work in Africa.

If elected, Haavisto would be Finland’s first openly gay president.

Runner-up candidates

Coming third in the polls and trailing quite far behind the other two is far-right candidate Jussi Halla-Aho, the former Finns Party (ECR) leader. He is more Eurosceptic than the others, though he called the objective of Finland leaving the EU “not realistic in any way” last August.

Coming in fourth is liberal candidate and former EU Commissioner for Enlargement Olli Rehn, who is running as an independent but backed by the centrist Keskusta (Renew).

Former European Commissioner for International Partnerships socialist Jutta Urpilainen (SDP/S&D), who left her post in the EU executive to run, is projected to fall behind with 8% of votes.

Despite the socialists ranking high in national polls, Urpilainen looks to continue the streak of underachieving SDP presidential nominees, with many SDP voters supporting Pekka Haavisto instead.

According to data from the Ministry of Justice, around a third of the eligible voters have already cast their vote in advance.

All candidates have similar positions on key EU issues, such as the need for the bloc to be economically independent of China. They also promise strong support for Ukraine’s bid to join the bloc and receive more military aid.

Finnish presidential elections are held every six years, in early January and February. Any party with parliamentary representation can nominate a candidate, as can constituency associations with 20,000 signatures.

If no candidate wins more than 50% of the vote in the first round, the top two candidates enter the run-off phase.

(Olivia Gyapong & Julius Lehtinen | Euractiv and Europe Elects)

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