The Transnistria crisis explained

Transnistria, a breakaway Moldovan province loyal to Russia, has been in the headlines this week amid an energy crisis triggered by a recent Ukrainian decision to suspend a Russian gas deal via its territory to the region. 

Hundreds of thousands of people in Transnistria now face a harsh winter without gas, heating or electricity after the Kremlin-backed leadership in Tiraspol, the provincial capital, declined offers to secure alternatives from Moldova.

Moldova itself is also under pressure because it has been relying on a third of its electricity generated in a large gas-fired power plant in Transnistria that is now idle.

Its pro-European leaders accuse Moscow of "gas blackmail" in trying to destabilise the country and warned the country would face a Russia-induced security crisis.

What follows is a brief explainer of everything you need to know about the region, its worsening crisis and why it all matters to the rest of Europe.

What is Transnistria?

Transnistria, Latin for "beyond the Dniester River," has a population size of around 400,000 and has been controlled by pro-Russian separatists since 1992, though it remains part of Moldova.

Some 1,500 Russian "peacekeeping" troops are still stationed there, as well as a major Russian weapons storage facility, the Cobasna ammunition depot.

It has its own currency, the Transnistrian ruble, and its own army.

How likely is it for Russia to step in?

Sandwiched between Chișinău and Kyiv, Transistria's unresolved status and strong dependency on Russia have long given Moscow a strong foothold in Moldova.

Moscow's plan to create a land corridor to the exclave through southern Ukraine all the way to Transnistria in order to link it with its troop garrison there failed when Kyiv's troops halted Russian forces on the eastern side of the Dnipro River after Moscow's invasion in 2022.

While Russia has repeatedly asserted it would "protect Russian citizens," wherever they may be, Moscow's ability to do so as its struggles with the war in Ukraine has been severely constrained.

Nevertheless, Moscow has not abandoned efforts to interfere in Moldova's internal affairs, with last year's EU referendum and presidential elections having been heavily overshadowed by Russian vote-buying allegations.

What's the impact of Transnistria on Moldova's EU ambitions?

Transnistria's breakaway status has by far been the most significant obstacle complicating Moldova’s road to EU membership.

While Brussels has previously been adamant that no EU candidate country would be able to proceed with accession talks amid a frozen conflict on its territory, it has largely abandoned this stance since Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which led the bloc to formally open accession talks with both Ukraine and Moldova. 

Whether the country can enter the EU before the status of Transnistria is resolved remains an open question, however.

What is the state of the region's economy?

Transnistria's energy crisis follows a steep decline in trade with Moscow and an increasing economic reliance on EU member states as Russia’s full-scale invasion has radically changed the breakaway region's economic fortunes.

According to data published last month by Transnistria's official statistics office, over the period January-November 2024, total trade between the region and Russia fell 45% relative to the same period in the previous year.

Much of the decline was driven by a collapse in Russian energy imports, which fell 46%, or $608 million, over this period: a figure representing more than a quarter of the region's total trade in 2023.

Trade between Transnistria and the EU, meanwhile, grew by 12% over the same period, with both imports and exports experiencing sizeable upticks, according to the region's data. Energy imports from the EU also rose by 17%, or $11 million.

Romania is by far Transnistria's leading EU trading partner, accounting for 14.6% of the region's total trade in 2024 and more than half of its total trade with the EU.

An additional pull factor is expected to come from the perspective of increased investment flows into the country as part of its accession talks, including from a €1.8 billion Growth and Investment Plan.

Would Moldova want to retake Transnistria?

Russia has repeatedly accused Moldova's government of plotting a military operation against the Transnistria, spreading the narrative that Moldovan authorities would be ready to take the breakaway region by force.

Moldovan officials have refuted such claims, insisting the central government had no such plans to militarily enter Transnistria, even though it has not intention of relinquishing its territorial claims to the region.

Moldova is trying to use the current energy crisis to draw the region closer, offering emergency aid, including generators, to Transnistria. It also said it could secure gas for the region on international markets. However, Transnistria's leadership has rejected these offers so far.

Moldova's Prime Minister Dorin Recean said the crisis could eventually lead to the end of Transnistria’s self-declared independence.

In the long term, an absorption could pose a significant challenge to Moldova, as Transnistria's population - largely pro-Russian and distrustful of the central government - could create a pro-Russian majority on the electoral map.

Thomas Moller-Nielsen contributed reporting.

[Edited by Matthew Karnitschnig]