The Brief – Is Macron still the EU’s man?

While the absence of any viable coalition government in France, a situation lasting 50 days and counting, may be new for the French, it is not unusual in other EU countries. That said, the longer this continues, the more it stains Emmanuel Macron’s reputation on the EU stage.

In November 2017, Time magazine ran its cover story with an interview of the newly elected Macron. The title read “The next leader of Europe,” with the asterisk “If only he can lead France.”

Welcoming Macron’s new stature with candid eyes, the piece closed with this: “If Macron pulls off his transformation at home, the ambitions he has to change the world—not just France—could be within reach.”

This is no meaningless last sentence, and it is so far from what Macron’s aura has become seven years into office. (Another sentence reads, “Putin is now a man [Macron] can cut a deal with." Evidently, it did not age well.)

In just the past three months, the French president has suffered two crushing defeats in the polls—the European and snap national legislative elections—the latter of which he called in June.

At the same time, the European Commission opened an Excessive Deficit Procedure (EDP) on France, with its deficit and debt levels some some of the highest in the EU. However, with no government in place to develop a draft budget that could assuage some of the Commission’s concerns, for now, it remains another thorn in Macron's side.

Finally, the country’s political makeup following the snap elections is more fragmented than ever, with no viable coalition or minority government in sight.

The left-wing union, which secured the highest number of seats in the National Assembly (but is 100 short of an absolute majority) has been barred by the Elysée from future coalition talks, arguing it would fail to bring ‘institutional stability’.

Negotiations are still ongoing with the centre-right and the right. If successful, such a coalition would only survive with the far-right Rassemblement National abstaining on a vote of no confidence.

A government whose existence now rests on the far right not opposing it is not a good look for “the next leader of Europe.”

Aura crash: Real or perceived?

Can this situation – and the institutional no man's land the country is jumping into, feet first – dent Macron’s stature in Europe?

The president has never been so weak politically and will spend more time handling domestic matters at the cost of EU engagement – and other European leaders know this.

A key Macron promise, first and foremost the €100 billion defence fund for Ukraine, could be thwarted as the country’s finances become unviable – and Next Generation EU loans and grants dry up at the end of 2026.

The nitty-gritty of file negotiations will be made all the harder as coalition government ministers, some of whom are from parties other than Macron’s, will sit at the Council of the EU.

Finally, the transposition of EU regulations into French law will also be prone to political manoeuvring.

Sébastien Maillard, a special advisor at the Jacques Delors Institute think tank, told me that applying adopted Green Deal files nationally will be “much harder” than before, especially under a right-leaning coalition.

There's another side to this story, however.

This unprecedented situation has come at a shock for the French, but coalition building is standard procedure in a vast majority of EU member states.

Coalition talks, minority governments, and ideological splits between the executive and legislative branches are not only normal, but also a sign of a healthy and vibrant democracies.

Certain aspects of Macron’s April Sorbonne speech may even benefit from higher support under a right-wing coalition: Boosting European business competitiveness is a top priority for any self-respecting conservative, and the new powers granted by the Migration Pact might be used to their fullest extent.

Plus, other member states have their own problems: Germany’s coalition is in turmoil and may be further weakened by a far-right win in regional elections this Sunday; Italy’s Giorgia Meloni’s coalition government is embroiled in a nasty debate on citizenship acquisition; and the Spaniards have a massive Catalonian chip on their shoulders.

Only Poland’s Donald Tusk appears to be weathering the storm, although “he is still compelled to work closely with the Weimar Triangle allies [Germany and France],” Europe Jacques Delors’ Sophie Pornschlegel said.

But despite the current political deadlock in France, “even if Macron loses influence, there is no obvious leader to replace him,” said Maillard.

Was Time right after all?

 

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The Roundup

As EU foreign and defence ministers gather informally in Brussels instead of Budapest on Thursday (29 August), tensions with Hungary are expected to reach a boiling point. 

While EU imports from Russia slid to record lows in the second quarter of 2024, signs persist that Brussels’ sanctions on Moscow are being circumvented via trade with third countries

EU member states have not helped European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in her quest for a gender-balanced EU executive, with little time left to weigh the factors that would allow her new line-up to pass parliamentary scrutiny.

Teenagers are using fewer condoms when having sex, a report commissioned by the World Health Organisation (WHO) has found, leading to concerns over the risks of unwanted pregnancy and sexually transmitted infections (STIs).

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has signalled his willingness to hold talks with the opposition on irregular immigration, a hot-button issue that has reignited the country’s political landscape ahead of a crucial election weekend.

Look out for…

• Informal meeting of EU defence ministers in Brussels, Belgium
• EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell chairs the informal meeting of EU defence ministers.
• European Commission President Ursuala von der Leyen delivers the keynote speech at  GLOBSEC 2024 in Prague, Czechia.

[Edited by Alice Taylor-Braçe/Rajnish Singh]