COVID-19 further aggravated Italy’s plummeting birth rate

The pandemic aggravated the declining birth rates in rich countries, with Italy seeing the sharpest decline in 2020. There were 16,000 fewer births and the country saw its birth rate reduce by 9.1%, according to a study of the Bocconi University of Milan published in PNAS magazine.

The study covered 22 countries (including Austria, Belgium, Bulgaria, Denmark, Sweden, Finland, USA, Germany, France, Spain, Hungary, Iceland, Israel).

“Countries like Norway, Sweden, Germany, the Netherlands, where there is more generous welfare and individuals are less afraid of employment and income, there has been no decline in births,” study author Letizia Mencarini told Ansa news agency.

“Countries like Italy, Portugal and the USA, on the other hand, have had more repercussions due to the economic and employment uncertainties linked to the pandemic” she added. According to Mencarini, the pandemic further exacerbated the socio-economic inequalities especially among the youngest, who are more likely to postpone starting a family.

According to the models of the study, “which take into account the fertility trends already underway in the various countries (caused for example by a reduction in potential mothers), the most significant falls in births occurred in Italy (- 9.1% of born compared to 2019), Hungary (- 8.5%), Spain (- 8.4%), Portugal (- 6.6%)” Mencarini said.

For Italy, the months with the fewest births were December 2020 (3,500 fewer births compared to December 2019) and January 2021 (5,000 fewer births), with a decline in conception linked to the first pandemic wave.

While the average drop in births in the other months of 2020 compared to the same month in 2019 was 3%, in December it was 21%, and the same in January 2021.