Crisis at Belarusian border helps ruling party regain ground

In the second half of August, “the conflict over refugees was a gift from heavens for PiS”. [EPA-EFE/ARTUR RESZKO]

Latest polls show that the ruling party in Poland is regaining some popularity after last months’ losses at the expense of leading opposition parties.

The 10 September United Surveys poll for WP.pl showed Law and Justice (PiS) support at 36.4%, which is 2.2 points higher than in August. The Civic Coalition led by Donald Tusk ranked second with 22.3%, a fall of 5.3% compared with the previous month.

The centrist Poland 2050 stands at 9.2% (0.8% less than in August).

The far-right Confederacy is supported by 8.8%, up 2.9% the Left’s support is stable at 6.8% (-0.1%) as well as the EPP-member Polish People’s Party (PSL) with 5.2% support (+0.2%).

This poll reflects a more general trend from mid-August. Marcin Palade, who professionally follows Polish opinion polls, tweeted on 9 September: “We notice that  [Poland’s] liberal centre reaction to the developments on the Polish-Belarussian border has resulted in lower joint support for the Civic Coalition and Poland 2050”.

Marcin Duma, head of the polling institute IBRIS, commented that in early August “there was a moment when PiS lost the political initiative, which was reflected in the opinion polls”. Then in the second half of August, “the conflict over refugees was a gift from heavens for PiS”, as it is the factor explaining PiS’ increased public support in recent weeks.

(Piotr Maciej Kaczyński | EURACTIV.pl)

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