Lithuanian social democrats take lead in polls

The centre-left Lietuvos Socialdemokratų Partija (Social Democratic Party of Lithuania, LSDP) would better their position from last year’s heavy election defeat where the party received 9.6% of the vote to almost 30% if an election were held today, according to the latest poll for Lietuvos Rytas.

The S&D member in the EU Parliament remained in opposition following the 2020 vote, while liberals and the centre-right took place on the government benches.

The current rise of LDSP is “clearly linked to the election of Vilija Blinkevičiūtė as party leader,” Leon Liesener, Europe Elects country representative on Lithuania, explained.

“She was always among Lithuania’s most popular politicians in opinion polls, which can be attributed to her term as Lithuania’s Labour Minister, when she initiated a major social insurance reform, raising pensions and other social benefits. Of course, it is possible to speculate about additional reasons, for example, general dissatisfaction with how the government parties are handling the coronavirus pandemic, and the turmoil ongoing within the other major opposition force in Lithuania, that recently resulted in a split of its parliamentary group,” Liesner also said.

“LSDP, instead, is approaching its opposition role rather constructively and did not get itself involved in the conflicts between the main government and opposition forces. But the main driver behind the surge is, indeed, the new leader—similar to Germany with SPD chancellor candidate Scholz, as the exit polls revealed. Political commentators in Lithuania suggested that for this reason, it might not be a sustainable surge, just like for other mere personality-based opinion poll shifts,” the Europe Elects country representative also said.

The surge of LSDP’s popularity is in line with the Social Democrats positioning themselves to take power in Berlin and Oslo after recent elections. But with the next elections taking place in 2024, LSDP could struggle to maintain its current position.

(Tobias Gerhard Schminke)