PARIS – A tough autumn

Economic activity in France could decline once again this autumn due to the recently imposed health measures, according to the latest economic outlook note from the French National Institute for Statistics and Economic Studies (INSEE), which also warned that  “forecasts for the end of the year are becoming more uncertain”.

This comes after the sharp rebound observed when measures were relaxed (+16% expected in Q3, compared to the 13.8% drop in Q2).

If, in Q4, the most affected services such as hotels and leisure activities were to return to June levels of activity and investment to a level close to that of Q3, “GDP would remain 5% below pre-crisis levels” and growth at zero.

And while France’s annual GDP could drop by 9% this year, 840,000 jobs are expected to be lost and the country’s unemployment rate could even reach 9.7%, according to INSEE’s predictions.

(Louise Rozès Moscovenko | EURACTIV.FR)

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