Germany’s cheap public transport ticket an ineffective climate tool: Report

Germany’s new monthly €49 offer for all regional public transport will have little impact on the transport sector’s carbon emissions so the country will continue to fail its climate targets for transport and beyond, according to an expert council advising the government.

As the German transport sector has so far failed to meet its emissions targets, in June the government presented a bundle of measures that should help to put the country on track to reduce overall emissions by 65% by 2030, compared to 1990.

One of the key measures touted by Transport Minister Volker Wissing (FDP/Renew Europe), is the new “Deutschlandticket” introduced in May, a subscription offer that enables users to use regional trains and buses, trams, metros, as well as some ferries across the country for €49 per month.

Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who called the predecessor of the €49 ticket, the temporary introduction of a similar €9 ticket over the summer of 2022, “one of the best ideas we ever had”, told newspaper Taz in January that “with our decisions, we ensure that we can achieve the climate targets and at the same time preserve prosperity in our country”.

However, the transport sector is far from reaching its emissions reduction targets for the run-up to 2030, and the €49 ticket helps little, according to a forecast by the Federal Environment Agency, published alongside a report by the German Council of Experts on Climate Change, which advises the government.

During this decade, the sector will overshoot its emissions pathway by 117 to 191 million tonnes of CO2, the expert council noted, adding that the huge latitude was due to different forecasts on the effectiveness of climate measures between the transport ministry and the Federal Environment Agency (UBA).

For the Deutschlandticket specifically, the UBA only expects an annual emissions reduction of 0.5 to 0.6 million tonnes of CO2 per year, adding up to 4.2 million tonnes by 2030.

The transport ministry, in contrast, thinks it will be more effective, expecting a cumulative emission reduction of 22.6 million tonnes until 2030 as drivers are expected to reduce car use thanks to the new option.

Costly gap: Germany to fall significantly short of EU climate targets

Germany will likely emit 150 million tonnes more of CO2-equivalent gases than EU rules created by the Effort Sharing Regulation permit, which is expected to result in a hefty penalty payment of up to €30 billion.

27 million people without access to frequent public transport

For the expert council, the transport ministry’s calculation “appears overestimated”, as it does not sufficiently consider capacity limitations of the public transport network and reduced comfort and thus attractiveness in the case of higher passenger numbers, it noted in its report.

Agora Verkehrswende, a think-tank, also argued that “especially in sparsely populated regions where there are hardly any buses and trains, the Deutschlandticket is of no help”.

Across Germany, a country with 83 million inhabitants, “about 27 million people either have no connection to public transport in their vicinity or only a few times a day,” the think-tank wrote in a statement.

Asked for comment about the discrepancy between the forecasts, the Federal Environment Agency referred to the Transport Ministry.

“Regarding the modelling of the ministries, I would recommend that you ask them directly. Especially since the BMDV [Federal Ministry of Digital and Transport] modelling is not published,” a UBA researcher told EURACTIV.

The transport ministry did not respond to a request for comment.

Germany veers off from 2030 climate goal

The German government faces a CO2 gap of 200 million tonne to reach its 2030 climate target, largely due to a lack of action in the transport sector.

Other measures’ effectiveness equally contested

On other measures, too, the expert council cast doubt on the transport ministry’s forecasts.

While the 22.6 million tonnes of CO2 reduced due to more people working from home, cutting commuting kilometres would indeed be largely realistic, another 14.1 million averted tonnes of CO2 due to “efficiency gains through automated and connected driving” would be “hardly expectable”, the expert council noted.

Similarly, both the Economy Ministry, led by Green minister Robert Habeck, and the Transport Ministry, led by liberal FDP’s Wissing, overestimate the effectiveness of a new CO2 levy that will be added to road tolls as of December 2023, the experts note.

While the Climate Ministry expects this to reduce transport emissions by 17.9 million tonnes of CO2, the Transport Ministry forecasts a reduction of 22.5 million tonnes.

The CO2 levy for freight transport on roads was a demand of the Greens scored as part of a marathon negotiation on climate protection earlier this year. Revenue from the measure will partly go into Germany’s ailing railway operator Deutsche Bahn.

“The federal government is concerned with generating revenue, not with the steering effect on the engines,” a spokesperson of the German Association for Haulage and Logistics (DSLV) told EURACTIV. 

As revenues from the new toll are expected to increase, rather than decline, over the coming years, “the federal government is thus obviously aware that neither alternative drives nor charging infrastructure are available to a sufficient extent to realise a rapid shift [to zero-emission vehicles] on the road”.

“If the CO2 levy were effective, the switch to zero-emission vehicles (ZEV) would be faster,” the DSLV spokesperson said.

Germany's transport targets sacrificed to save faltering coalition

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[Edited by Sean Goulding Carroll/Zoran Radosavljevic]

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