EU seeks global roadmap at Bali climate talks

As the UN climate talks get underway in Bali, the EU has put forward an ambitious wish list for the negotiations inspired by the bloc’s performance under the Kyoto Protocol. But doubts remain about the level of commitment that can be expected from the world’s other large CO2 emitters.

On 27 November, the Commission presented its expectations for the Bali negotiation roadmap along with the results of the EU’s progress towards the Kyoto targets, which, according to EU Environment Commissioner Stavros Dimas, illustrate that the EU has broken the link between economic growth and CO2 emissions.

The Commission’s announcement of a strong EU perfomance under Kyoto has been widely interpreted as a way to boost the bloc’s environmental credentials in advance of the Bali talks.

Kyoto report card

Dimas’ claim is largely based on figures for the year 2005, which show that despite 35% economic growth between 1995 and 2005, EU-15 CO2 emissions were 2% below levels recorded at the base year (1990 for most member states). For EU-25, CO2 emissions were down 11% during the same period.  

Despite the positive results for 2005, at current trends the EU is still not on track to meet its Kyoto targets by 2012. But the Commission argues that all the EU can reach and even surpass the Kyoto targets – projecting a total potential reduction in CO2 emissions of 11.4% by 2010 – as long as “additional policies and measures under discussion at EU level” are undertaken. 

Most of these additional measures will be set out by the Commission in its climate and energy ‘package’, expected on 23 January 2008, which will include proposals on mandatory increases in renewable energy use and a revision of the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) for beyond 2012. The Commission is confident that the tighter caps set on emissions for the 2008-2012 EU ETS trading period will significantly reduce EU CO2 output. 

Also included in the list of further measures is the inclusion of aviation in the EU ETS, cleaner transport fuels and a cut in vehicle CO2 emissions, as well as the use of carbon ‘sinks’ through afforestation and reforestation. 

Bali wish list

On 30 October, EU environment ministers set out eight ‘building blocks’ or negotiating tracks for Bali:

1. A commitment to limit global average temperatures to 2° Celcius above pre-industrial levels;
2. emissions reductions by developed countries in the order of 30% by 2020 and 60-80% by 2050 compared with 1990 levels;
3. ‘fair and effective contributions’ by developing countries;
4. expansion of global carbon markets, including through link-ups with EU ETS;
5. more R&D and research cooperation;
6. increased efforts to adapt to climate change;
7. inclusion of aviation and maritime emissions; and; 
8. a reduction of CO2 emissions from deforestation.

EU red lines

The EU will not be able to claim success at the talks unless its two main red lines – a commitment by developed countries to cut emissions and more efforts by developing countries – are included in the Bali roadmap, an official in the Council close to the negotiations told EURACTIV.

And the EU’s main challenge will be to get leaders to agree on a negotiating framework that is firm yet flexible enough to accomodate an evolution in the position of parties, the official said. 

With US elections coming up in 2008 and a new administration expected to take office in the middle of 2009, there is some hope of a late shift in the stance of the US, which did not ratify Kyoto and which has been traditionally opposed to any binding international commitments to reduce CO2 emissions. 

But an obstinate US administration is not the only concern on the minds of EU delegations as they head to Bali. India in particular has expressed its opposition to significant emissions reduction commitments on the grounds that these would undermine the growth of its fledgling economy. And there is some concern that the US may ‘hide’ behind India in order to block any global CO2 deal.

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