The EU's biofuels promotion policy is unlikely to contribute to any greenhouse gas savings, with costs largely outweighing potential benefits, according to a leaked study by the Commission's in-house scientific unit obtained by EURACTIV.
An unpublished working paper by the Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) gives a damning overview of EU plans to raise the share of biofuels in transport to 10% by 2020.
According to the cost-benefit analysis, which has not been formally approved by the Commission, the policy will be exceedingly costly and will neither lead to substantial greenhouse gas savings nor to job creation.
"The uncertainty is too great to say whether the EU 10% biofuels target will save greenhouse gas or not," the study states. According to its figures, the indirect emissions caused by the conversion of arable or forest land to biofuels and the displacement of farming for food and feed outside the EU could potentially "negate the savings from conventional EU biofuels". It adds: "Certification schemes help, but cannot prevent the problem."
The study further adds that "the decision to specifically target greenhouse gas reductions in the transport sector reduces the benefits which could be achieved in other ways with the same EU resources" because, in terms of greenhouse gas reduction per hectare of land, "it is substantially more efficient to use the biomass to generate electricity than to produce conventional biofuels".
The report highlights that expected job creation from increased biofuels production risks being little more than "wishful thinking", as jobs created in the biofuels sector are likely to be offset by job destruction in other sectors affected by the biofuels target, making the net employment effect of the programme "insignificant."
"The costs [of the target] will almost certainly outweigh the benefits," states the analysis, which calculates that "the decrease in welfare caused by imposing a biofuel target is between 33 and 65 billion euros within an 80% probability range".
Positions
A Commission spokeswoman is cited by the Financial Times as saying that the JRC report had not been peer-reviewed. She said: "It is a contribution to the debate. We are looking at the whole picture and we will have sustainability criteria."
Rob Vierhout, secretary general of the European Bioethanol Fuel Association (eBIO), also stressed that the report, as it stands, means nothing as it has not yet been reviewed. "I am not surprised by the report as it has always been the agenda of the JRC to discredit biofuels ever since they started their Well-to-Wheel project with the oil and car industry," he told EURACTIV.
Vierhout added: "We have long asked to be a partner in this study but so far we have been completely left out. This is not the way democracy should function." According to him, "the fact that the study is being leaked now – one week ahead of the Commission legislation on biofuels – is a deliberate attempt by the oil industry to kill off the EU's biofuels policy."
He further questioned NGOs' positioning in the debate, saying: "If we want to reduce emissions from fossil fuels, we have only biofuels. Carmakers are certainly opposed to making more fuel-efficient vehicles, and they are getting their way as we saw in Parliament this week. Do NGOs have some sort of unholy alliance with oil companies?"
According to a press statement from the European Biodiesel Board (EBB), the 10% biofuels target represents a "major step forward". The association underlined the "important GHG savings linked to biodiesel use, with typical values ranging from 50% to more than 95% GHG savings depending on the raw material used for biodiesel production", adding: "This should not be overlooked in the confusing frame of public opinion campaigns indicating biofuels as a potential source of threat, while the real threat is represented by maintaining the status quo with an exponential increase of conventional fuels and of CO² emissions deriving from transport."
It further stressed that biodiesel development has an "important potential" for rural development and employment, and can help boost Europe’s independence in terms of security of supply at a time when the EU diesel deficit is increasing and the EU is more and more dependent on Russia for conventional diesel imports.
But according to Frauke Thies, Greenpeace's EU energy policy campaigner for renewable energies, the report "shows that the 10% target for biofuels in transport could even undermine the overall EU target for renewable energy, since it forces the use of biomass in an inefficient way. There is a much better use of biomass in the electricity and heating sectors and Greenpeace therefore demands that the 10% transport target be dropped."
Friends of the Earth campaigner Adrian Bebb commented: "I just can't see how the Commission can go ahead with its biofuels policy now. This report confirms that it's not cost-effective, it's not effective in terms of greenhouse gas reductions and won't create any jobs. It has nothing going for it."
Ariel Brunner, EU Agriculture Policy Officer for BirdLife International, agreed: "Now that even the Commission's own experts say so, it is time for the biofuels target to be set aside and for fresh thinking on how to really tackle climate change while preserving natural habitats."
Background
In March 2007, EU leaders committed to raising the share of biofuels in transport from current levels of around 2% to 10% by 2020, following growing concerns over rising oil prices, energy security and climate change.
Due to concerns about the risks relating to the mass production of biofuels made from agricultural crops, including deforestation, food price hikes and water shortages, an important condition for making the 2020 target binding is that production is sustainable and that so-called "second generation" biofuels, made from 'woody' materials not competing with food production, such as leaves, tree bark or straw, become available.
The Commission is due to present detailed legislation aimed at promoting the development and use of these alternatives to oil on 23 January 2008.
Timeline
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23 Jan. 2008: Commission due to present a mid-term review of its Biofuels Directive, as part of a package on promoting renewable energies.
Further Reading
EU official documents
NGOs and Think-Tanks
Press articles
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