Road operation projects: lucrative for institutional investors

The paper states that the expansion of road infrastructure in Germany has fallen far behind traffic growth in the recent years, which could impede Germany’s further economic development.

Over the past years the expansion of road infrastructure in Germany has fallen far behind traffic growth. This is mainly due to the continuing scarcity of public-sector funds. Between 1980 and 2001 road traffic in Germany rose by roughly 70% while gross capital expenditure on road construction declined slightly in real terms in the same period. The transport infrastructure threatens to be a bottleneck impeding Germany’s further economic development.

In view of this precarious situation, new financing instruments will have to be developed for the transport infrastructure. A transition from pure budget financing to user financing of road infrastructure would be helpful. Road pricing makes it easier to mobilise private capital for infrastructure measures. In the near term, “operator models” (e.g. Germany’s A-Model) will play the most significant role. Germany ideally fulfils the prerequisites for implementing such models, partly because of the high volume of traffic there. Furthermore, the models can provide a lucrative opportunity for institutional investors.

It will be a challenge to create investment options or an alternative type of investment in which the long-term nature of infrastructure investments can be combined with the long-term commitments of certain categories of institutional investors. Life insurers and pension funds are, by nature, prime candidates here.

Investments in suitable transport infrastructure offer low yield volatility and are less vulnerable than other investments to economic cycles. Historically, the growth of traffic volume has been very little affected by the ups and downs of the overall economy. Investments in transport infrastructure projects can therefore be regarded as robust, defensive, long-term investments bearing attractive yields.

We expect to see institutional investors showing growing interest in the AModel. Infrastructure investments – in the UK and Australia, for instance – have already developed into attractive and safe havens for institutional investors.

Read the

complete texton the Deutsche Bank Research website.