If the Remain camp wins by a tiny majority – the polls show a deadlock – then the Leave camp will not let the matter stand. It will manoeuvre for another referendum down the road, writes George Friedman.
The Brexit campaign has at times been difficult for British people living in Brussels, but the referendum is a vital challenge to the complacency and arrogance all too evident in the upper echelons of the European Union, writes James Crisp.
On 10 May, national parliaments, mainly from Central and Eastern Europe, managed to trigger a “yellow card” that forces the European Commission to reconsider its proposal to revise the Posted Workers Directive. Valentin Kreilinger answers eight questions on proposal, procedure and precedents.
The Brexit campaign is throwing up the oddest of paradoxes. Having been elected as a leftist hammer of the Conservatives, the Labour leader, Jeremy Corbyn, has now decided he wants to ensure David Cameron stays as Prime Minister by joining ranks with him to urge a defeat of the Brexit camp in the referendum on 23rd June.
If the latest polls are right, Britain looks increasingly likely to vote to leave the EU on 23 June. A number of polls put ‘Leave’ between two and five percentage points ahead of ‘Remain’, writes Adrian Pabst.
The deal that was necessary to keep the United Kingdom in the EU has also opened the door for other members to use referendums — or more likely, the threat of referendums — as a negotiating tactic, writes Stratfor, the global intelligence company.
What has emerged in the last two years is a European Union where member states pay attention to European regulations only when it suits them, and an EU leadership that does nothing about it, writes George Friedman.
The people of Scotland and the rest of the United Kingdom will soon decide whether the UK should remain a member of the European Union. The Scottish government is determined to make the case for continued membership, writes Humza Yousaf.
The new organization advocating a ‘leave’ vote in the UK's referendum on its EU membership has launched a website with a series of FAQs, which will rapidly give itself a reputation for factual errors and disinformation. Michael Emerson provides examples.
The British government financed a massive study called ‘Balance of Competences Review’ to evaluate the country’s EU membership, but strangely, it abstained from drawing conclusions from this effort, writes Michael Emerson.
The calling of a referendum on EU membership would not be a panacea for the problems in the relationship between London and Brussels. In fact, it risks deepening divisions over the terms of any potential exit and would be a de facto vote on the nature of the United Kingdom itself, agues Andrew Glencross.
The holding of a referendum on the UK's membership of the EU may result in it leaving the Union. Such a result might also dramatically weaken the domestic union between the four nations of the United Kingdom, writes Jo Murkens.